NEPatriots
3-0
30
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
06
DALCowboys
2-2
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
7
10
30
Cowboys
3
0
3
0
6
Spread
-9
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
356
265
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
6.5
4.0
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.30
Passing Yards
247
163
Comp/Att
20/27(74%)
26/39(67%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
4.2
EPA / Pass
+0.40
-0.56
Rushing Yards
109
102
Rush Attempts
23
24
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.07
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
11
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
3
3rd Down %
30%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-10.64
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-28
-24
Sack EPA
-7.73
-4.39
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
64
50
Penalty EPA
-7.43
-6.36
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-211
Home nfelo
1,554
Away nfelo
1,651
Home Field
+25.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-140.1
Home QB Adjustment
-110.1
Away QB Adjustment
+30.0
Market Regression
-33.0
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+30.0
B. Weeden
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-110.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
16
Yards / Game
9
16
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
32
22
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
4
21
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
21
Interceptions / Game
2
30
Fumbles / Game
2
32
Turnover EPA / Game
31
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
17
4th Down Efficiency
7
17
RZ Efficiency
4
8
Cowboys Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
8
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
27
28
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10
EPA
EPA / Play
25
10
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
5
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
32
24
Fumbles / Game
21
11
Turnover EPA / Game
1
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
16
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U