NEPatriots
-
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
033
MIADolphins
-
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
89°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
10
0
0
20
Dolphins
7
3
13
10
33
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
360
Total Plays
80
71
Yards / Play
3.9
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.02
Passing Yards
226
169
Comp/Att
29/56(52%)
18/32(56%)
Yards / Pass
4.0
5.3
EPA / Pass
-0.23
-0.17
Rushing Yards
89
191
Rush Attempts
20
38
Yards / Rush
4.5
5.0
EPA / Rush
+0.18
+0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
7
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
29%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
17
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
2
Turnover EPA
-8.26
-12.28
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-23
-9
Sack EPA
-11.53
-2.02
Penalties
9
4
Penalty Yards
100
26
Penalty EPA
-9.69
-2.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-77
Home nfelo
1,474
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+56.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
-4.1
Away QB Adjustment
+1.2
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.2
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-4.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
10
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
11
Rushing Yards / Game
19
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
19
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
5
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
6
16
Fumbles / Game
3
6
Turnover EPA / Game
30
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
28
4th Down Efficiency
3
27
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
8
Yards / Game
14
12
Passing Yards / Game
17
21
Rushing Yards / Game
12
13
EPA
EPA / Play
13
9
EPA / Pass
16
11
EPA / Rush
15
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
8
10
Fumbles / Game
15
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
12
RZ Efficiency
21
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Dolphins
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
2-7-1
O/U