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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 1, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
-
7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0
20
MIADolphins
-
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
7
0
7
Dolphins
3
8
3
0
14

Spread

MIA logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
47

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
271
307
Total Plays
54
59
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.04
Passing Yards
193
242
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.18
Rushing Yards
78
65
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.71
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-28
Sack EPA
-8.17
-6.21
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
20
Penalty EPA
-3.72
-3.12

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model54.1%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots+3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+13.2%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-19
Home nfelo
1,488
Away nfelo
1,540
Home Field
+33.0
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
-16.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
28.6
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
Value
Ptile
11/07
-5.1
19
11/14
3.0
76
11/18
-5.2
19
11/28
3.8
79
12/06
-5.0
20
12/18
-0.1
53
12/26
-6.5
12
01/02
4.7
83
01/09
-0.2
52
01/15
0.3
55
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Value
Ptile
10/17
4.8
83
10/24
5.6
86
10/31
-2.9
32
11/21
3.4
77
11/28
2.6
72
12/05
2.8
74
12/19
-4.7
21
12/27
-2.7
33
01/02
-10.3
4
01/09
1.9
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
24
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7

EPA

EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
2
RZ Efficiency
10
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
18
W
W
U
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/18
25
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/18
-10
L
L
U
12/26
-12
L
L
O
01/02
40
W
W
O
01/09
-9
L
L
O
01/15
-30
L
L
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/31
-15
L
P
U
11/07
8
W
W
U
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/21
7
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/19
7
W
L
O
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/02
-31
L
L
U
01/09
9
W
W
O