NEPatriots
-
7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
020
MIADolphins
-
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
7
0
7
Dolphins
3
8
3
0
14
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
307
Total Plays
54
59
Yards / Play
5.0
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.04
Passing Yards
193
242
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
23/33(70%)
Yards / Pass
6.4
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.18
Rushing Yards
78
65
Rush Attempts
22
23
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
18
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-16.71
--
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-20
-28
Sack EPA
-8.17
-6.21
Penalties
3
4
Penalty Yards
15
20
Penalty EPA
-3.72
-3.12
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model54.0%
Spread Pick
Patriots+3.5
Expected Value
+13.2%
Cover Probability
59.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-20
Home nfelo
1,490
Away nfelo
1,542
Home Field
+33.0
Base HFA
+36.8
Divisional Adj
-16.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.7
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
28.2
Model Spread
-2.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.1
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
26
19
Passing Yards / Game
19
24
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
26
22
EPA / Pass
22
17
EPA / Rush
24
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
23
Interceptions / Game
17
27
Fumbles / Game
29
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
26
4th Down Efficiency
28
13
RZ Efficiency
32
24
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
11
Yards / Game
9
9
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
27
7
EPA
EPA / Play
11
2
EPA / Pass
8
3
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
14
Interceptions / Game
26
3
Fumbles / Game
5
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
20
4th Down Efficiency
11
2
RZ Efficiency
10
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
3-7
O/U