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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 2, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
1-0
43
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
4 mph
0
MIADolphins
0-1
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
10
8
31
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0

Spread

NE logo
-18

Total

UNDER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
379
184
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.8
3.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.75
Passing Yards
255
142
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.57
-1.04
Rushing Yards
124
42
Rush Attempts
35
15
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
27
11
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
55%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.62
-24.84
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-9
-44
Sack EPA
-3.02
-10.26
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
54
22
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-3.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-18.0
Model
-15.5

Win Probability

Market92.0%
Model89.2%
Spread Pick
MIA logo
Dolphins+18.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+19.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-321
Home nfelo
1,315
Away nfelo
1,661
Home Field
+32.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
-26.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-13.9
Final Difference
-366.7
Model Spread
+15.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
Value
Ptile
11/25
4.6
78
12/02
4.9
79
12/09
5.5
83
12/16
1.5
57
12/23
-6.0
13
12/30
6.4
87
01/13
8.3
92
01/20
1.6
58
02/03
-2.7
29
09/08
7.2
91
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Value
Ptile
11/19
2.3
69
11/26
1.4
62
09/09
16.3
100
09/16
10.1
96
09/24
1.8
60
09/30
-7.3
9
11/04
0.4
49
11/11
2.3
65
11/18
-6.3
11
09/08
-5.9
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27

EPA

EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
15
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
28
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8

EPA

EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
26
1
EPA / Rush
30
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
18
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
14
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-1
L
L
O
12/16
-7
L
L
U
12/23
12
W
L
U
12/30
35
W
W
U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
6
W
W
O
02/03
10
W
W
U
09/08
30
W
W
U
MIA logo

Dolphins

3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/25
-19
L
L
O
11/04
7
W
W
U
11/11
-19
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
W
U
12/02
4
W
W
U
12/09
1
W
W
O
12/16
-24
L
L
O
12/23
-10
L
L
U
12/30
-25
L
L
O
09/08
-49
L
L
O