NEPatriots
1-0
43
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
4 mph
0
MIADolphins
0-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
6
10
8
31
Dolphins
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-18
Total
UNDER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
184
Total Plays
65
61
Yards / Play
5.8
3.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.75
Passing Yards
255
142
Comp/Att
20/28(71%)
18/39(46%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.57
-1.04
Rushing Yards
124
42
Rush Attempts
35
15
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.11
-0.28
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
11
Passing 1st downs
13
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
55%
13%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
4
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-4.62
-24.84
Sacks
2
7
Sack Yards
-9
-44
Sack EPA
-3.02
-10.26
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
54
22
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-3.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-15.0
Current
-18.0
Model
-15.5
Win Probability
Market92.0%
Model89.3%
Spread Pick
Dolphins+18.0
Expected Value
+19.4%
Cover Probability
60.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-325
Home nfelo
1,317
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+31.6
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
-26.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.6
Home QB Adjustment
+5.1
Away QB Adjustment
+11.7
Market Regression
-16.2
Final Difference
-369.0
Model Spread
+15.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.7
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+5.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
32
Yards / Game
14
30
Passing Yards / Game
20
29
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
16
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
14
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
10
13
Fumbles / Game
15
32
Turnover EPA / Game
28
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
24
4th Down Efficiency
26
28
RZ Efficiency
26
28
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
1
Yards / Game
27
1
Passing Yards / Game
4
4
Rushing Yards / Game
32
8
EPA
EPA / Play
27
1
EPA / Pass
26
1
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
29
Interceptions / Game
27
1
Fumbles / Game
4
18
Turnover EPA / Game
9
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
1
4th Down Efficiency
17
6
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U