NEPatriots
3-1
13
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
10 mph
26
MIADolphins
3-1
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
87°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
6
7
13
Dolphins
6
10
7
3
26
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
245
319
Total Plays
52
72
Yards / Play
4.7
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.09
Passing Yards
208
182
Comp/Att
17/32(53%)
17/27(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.5
6.7
EPA / Pass
+0.02
+0.33
Rushing Yards
37
137
Rush Attempts
17
44
Yards / Rush
2.2
3.1
EPA / Rush
-0.46
-0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
21
Passing 1st downs
12
12
Rushing 1st downs
2
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
30%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
9
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.25
-4.18
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-32
-8
Sack EPA
-7.15
-1.59
Penalties
6
5
Penalty Yards
49
35
Penalty EPA
-6.82
-2.74
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
4
Yards / Game
22
3
Passing Yards / Game
21
5
Rushing Yards / Game
28
5
EPA
EPA / Play
10
9
EPA / Pass
18
4
EPA / Rush
16
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
5
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
20
1
RZ Efficiency
16
5
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
15
Yards / Game
15
23
Passing Yards / Game
25
7
Rushing Yards / Game
2
31
EPA
EPA / Play
7
19
EPA / Pass
16
8
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
23
Interceptions / Game
12
12
Fumbles / Game
27
12
Turnover EPA / Game
17
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
26
4th Down Efficiency
31
27
RZ Efficiency
2
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
6-3-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-4-1
ATS
0-0-10
O/U