NEPatriots
2-5
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
17 mph
31
MIADolphins
5-2
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
17 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
0
3
7
17
Dolphins
7
10
7
7
31
Spread
-7.5
Total
OVER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
218
390
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.03
Passing Yards
141
312
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.28
Rushing Yards
77
78
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
11%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.82
-9.96
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-12
Sack EPA
-4.37
-3.03
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-8.38
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-68.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
22
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
9
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
24
23
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
3
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U