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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 8, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
2-5
17
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
17 mph
31
MIADolphins
5-2
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
83°F
17 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
0
3
7
17
Dolphins
7
10
7
7
31

Spread

MIA logo
-7.5

Total

OVER
46.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
218
390
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
4.3
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.03
Passing Yards
141
312
Comp/Att
19/29(66%)
30/45(67%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.9
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.28
Rushing Yards
77
78
Rush Attempts
19
26
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.02
-0.44
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
13
24
Passing 1st downs
7
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
11%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
1
5
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.82
-9.96
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-12
Sack EPA
-4.37
-3.03
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
45
--
Penalty EPA
-8.38
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIA logo
MIADolphinsFavored
Opening
-12.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-7.5

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model74.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+169
Home nfelo
1,595
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+38.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
-19.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+26.8
Home QB Adjustment
+23.5
Away QB Adjustment
-3.3
Market Regression
-68.4
Final Difference
185.3
Model Spread
-7.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-3.3
Value
Ptile
12/24
-0.4
49
01/01
-2.4
33
01/08
-0.1
52
09/10
5.6
84
09/17
-1.0
44
09/24
0.7
53
10/01
-6.2
13
10/08
-9.0
5
10/15
-5.0
20
10/22
8.7
95
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.5
Team Elo Adj
+23.5
Value
Ptile
12/11
-5.2
17
12/17
1.8
66
12/25
-3.4
25
09/10
9.4
97
09/17
0.9
55
09/24
11.6
98
10/01
0.4
52
10/08
1.9
63
10/15
6.7
89
10/22
-1.4
39

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
31
22
Yards / Game
30
11
Passing Yards / Game
31
24
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7

EPA

EPA / Play
32
22
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
22
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
29
Interceptions / Game
30
16
Fumbles / Game
16
5
Turnover EPA / Game
4
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
20
4th Down Efficiency
32
13
RZ Efficiency
11
26
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
3
14
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
7
3

EPA

EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
4
20
EPA / Rush
9
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
31
9
Interceptions / Game
24
23
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
7
4th Down Efficiency
24
20
RZ Efficiency
3
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
-4
L
L
U
01/01
2
W
L
O
01/08
-12
L
L
O
09/10
-5
L
L
O
09/17
-7
L
L
U
09/24
5
W
W
U
10/01
-35
L
L
U
10/08
-34
L
L
U
10/15
-4
L
L
U
10/22
4
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

6-4
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/01
-2
L
W
O
01/08
5
W
W
U
01/15
-3
L
W
O
09/10
2
W
W
O
09/17
7
W
W
U
09/24
50
W
W
O
10/01
-28
L
L
O
10/08
15
W
W
U
10/15
21
W
W
O
10/22
-14
L
L
U