NEPatriots
6-4
48
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
14 mph
28
MIADolphins
6-4
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
73°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
14
14
17
48
Dolphins
7
7
7
7
28
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
530
392
Total Plays
70
62
Yards / Play
7.6
6.3
EPA / Play
+0.47
+0.13
Passing Yards
408
330
Comp/Att
30/43(70%)
24/41(59%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
8.0
EPA / Pass
+0.54
+0.26
Rushing Yards
122
62
Rush Attempts
25
19
Yards / Rush
4.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
+0.31
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
23
Passing 1st downs
18
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
8
12
Red Zone %
60%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-9.13
-5.27
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-7
-11
Sack EPA
-2.67
-1.75
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
38
60
Penalty EPA
-5.48
-8.07
Preview data is limited for games before 2009
Model projections and totals are not available before 2009, meaning preview data is limited to spread and margin trends, and team stats.
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
MarketN/A
ModelN/A
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
Home nfelo
Away nfelo
Home Field
Base HFA
Divisional Adj
Home Bye Adj
Away Bye Adj
Surface Adj
Time Adj
Net QB Adjustment
Home QB Adjustment
Away QB Adjustment
Market Regression
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
Quarterback Data Not Available
Quarterback Data Not Available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
10
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
4
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
12
EPA
EPA / Play
2
24
EPA / Pass
9
14
EPA / Rush
1
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
4
10
Fumbles / Game
12
14
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
21
RZ Efficiency
18
11
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
8
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
15
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
6
27
EPA / Rush
20
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
5
Interceptions / Game
3
15
Fumbles / Game
7
22
Turnover EPA / Game
30
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
23
27
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
9
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U
Dolphins
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
0-0-10
O/U