NEPatriots
10-2
20
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
55°F
7 mph
27
MIADolphins
5-7
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
55°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
0
10
20
Dolphins
6
7
14
0
27
Spread
+10.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
248
362
Total Plays
55
70
Yards / Play
4.5
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.10
+0.03
Passing Yards
223
242
Comp/Att
24/43(56%)
25/38(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
6.4
EPA / Pass
-0.16
+0.08
Rushing Yards
25
120
Rush Attempts
10
30
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
-0.21
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
21
Passing 1st downs
9
13
Rushing 1st downs
2
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
0%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
--
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.18
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-21
Sack EPA
-3.10
-4.28
Penalties
9
8
Penalty Yards
78
102
Penalty EPA
-8.93
-9.83
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market81.3%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-274
Home nfelo
1,386
Away nfelo
1,707
Home Field
+49.8
Base HFA
+55.5
Divisional Adj
-25.0
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+2.0
Away QB Adjustment
+5.5
Market Regression
+30.2
Final Difference
-255.3
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+5.5
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
29
Yards / Game
1
16
Passing Yards / Game
2
19
Rushing Yards / Game
15
14
EPA
EPA / Play
1
20
EPA / Pass
1
28
EPA / Rush
8
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
2
28
Fumbles / Game
6
23
Turnover EPA / Game
31
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
9
4th Down Efficiency
4
2
RZ Efficiency
3
29
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
7
Yards / Game
25
30
Passing Yards / Game
21
28
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20
EPA
EPA / Play
28
26
EPA / Pass
26
24
EPA / Rush
30
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
21
Interceptions / Game
30
22
Fumbles / Game
13
30
Turnover EPA / Game
3
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
22
4th Down Efficiency
28
17
RZ Efficiency
19
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
3-5-2
ATS
7-3
O/U