NEPatriots
9-3
33
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
13 mph
34
MIADolphins
6-6
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
82°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
6
21
0
6
33
Dolphins
7
14
7
6
34
Spread
+9
Total
OVER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
412
Total Plays
75
45
Yards / Play
5.6
9.2
EPA / Play
+0.16
+0.26
Passing Yards
344
223
Comp/Att
27/43(63%)
14/19(74%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
11.7
EPA / Pass
+0.46
+0.46
Rushing Yards
77
189
Rush Attempts
30
21
Yards / Rush
2.6
9.0
EPA / Rush
-0.22
+0.55
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
28
20
Passing 1st downs
21
10
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
56%
14%
3rd Down Conversions
9
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
7
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-14
-42
Sack EPA
-6.28
-7.52
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
30
81
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-7.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-9.0
Model
-9.0
Win Probability
Market78.3%
Model78.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-220
Home nfelo
1,396
Away nfelo
1,679
Home Field
+51.4
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+11.3
Home QB Adjustment
+12.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-20.8
Final Difference
-222.9
Model Spread
+9.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
R. Tannehill
Proj. Value
-2.2
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
27
Yards / Game
4
29
Passing Yards / Game
25
13
Rushing Yards / Game
5
31
EPA
EPA / Play
4
23
EPA / Pass
7
25
EPA / Rush
6
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
4
Interceptions / Game
12
2
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
19
3
RZ Efficiency
10
20
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
6
Yards / Game
31
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
9
Rushing Yards / Game
19
7
EPA
EPA / Play
28
7
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
27
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
11
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
15
4th Down Efficiency
8
4
RZ Efficiency
27
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Dolphins
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U