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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ dolphins week 18, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
10-6
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph
33
MIADolphins
8-8
MIA logo
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
7
3
14
24
Dolphins
8
3
7
3
21

Spread

MIA logo
+5.5

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Total Yards
379
298
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
245
103
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.13
Rushing Yards
134
195
Rush Attempts
27
43
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.48
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-6
Sack EPA
-3.00
-1.96
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
78
33
Penalty EPA
-11.48
-4.49

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-109
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,607
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
Value
Ptile
10/24
4.3
81
10/31
-2.8
32
11/07
-5.1
19
11/14
3.0
76
11/18
-5.2
19
11/28
3.8
79
12/06
-5.0
20
12/18
-0.1
53
12/26
-6.5
12
01/02
4.7
83
T. Tagovailoa headshot

T. Tagovailoa

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Value
Ptile
09/19
-7.9
8
10/17
4.8
83
10/24
5.6
86
10/31
-2.9
32
11/21
3.4
77
11/28
2.6
72
12/05
2.8
74
12/19
-4.7
21
12/27
-2.7
33
01/02
-10.3
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Patriots logo
Dolphins logo

Total

Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
9
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Dolphins logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24

EPA

EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
29
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
15
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
41
W
W
O
10/31
3
W
W
O
11/07
18
W
W
U
11/14
38
W
W
O
11/18
25
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O
12/06
4
W
W
U
12/18
-10
L
L
U
12/26
-12
L
L
O
01/02
40
W
W
O
MIA logo

Dolphins

7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/24
-2
L
L
O
10/31
-15
L
P
U
11/07
8
W
W
U
11/11
12
W
W
U
11/21
7
W
W
U
11/28
23
W
W
O
12/05
11
W
W
U
12/19
7
W
L
O
12/27
17
W
W
U
01/02
-31
L
L
U