NEPatriots
10-6
24
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph
33
MIADolphins
8-8
TBD
Hard Rock Stadium
75°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
7
3
14
24
Dolphins
8
3
7
3
21
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
379
298
Total Plays
59
66
Yards / Play
6.4
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.01
+0.14
Passing Yards
245
103
Comp/Att
20/30(67%)
15/22(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
4.7
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.13
Rushing Yards
134
195
Rush Attempts
27
43
Yards / Rush
5.0
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.06
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
23
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
11
12
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
75%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-20.48
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-6
Sack EPA
-3.00
-1.96
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
78
33
Penalty EPA
-11.48
-4.49
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market68.5%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-107
Home nfelo
1,486
Away nfelo
1,609
Home Field
+19.9
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-135.0
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.3
T. Tagovailoa
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Dolphins Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
15
16
Passing Yards / Game
12
18
Rushing Yards / Game
8
13
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
10
8
EPA / Rush
9
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
17
3
Turnover EPA / Game
6
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
19
4th Down Efficiency
1
23
RZ Efficiency
7
7
Dolphins Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
3
Yards / Game
25
7
Passing Yards / Game
27
2
Rushing Yards / Game
29
24
EPA
EPA / Play
22
5
EPA / Pass
19
5
EPA / Rush
29
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
30
Interceptions / Game
14
2
Fumbles / Game
25
16
Turnover EPA / Game
16
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
9
4th Down Efficiency
15
16
RZ Efficiency
15
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
6-4
O/U
Dolphins
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U