NEPatriots
8-1
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
13 mph
10
PHIEagles
5-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
13 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
9
8
0
17
Eagles
3
7
0
0
10
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
255
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
4.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.19
Passing Yards
224
174
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.40
Rushing Yards
76
81
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
31%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.08
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-40
Sack EPA
-1.48
-10.56
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
89
39
Penalty EPA
-5.95
-4.99
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,721
Home Field
+25.6
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+14.4
Away Bye Adj
-39.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3
EPA
EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
15
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
16
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Eagles
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U