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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ eagles week 11, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
8-1
17
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
13 mph
10
PHIEagles
5-4
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
42°F
13 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
9
8
0
17
Eagles
3
7
0
0
10

Spread

NE logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
45

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
300
255
Total Plays
72
66
Yards / Play
4.2
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.19
Passing Yards
224
174
Comp/Att
27/48(56%)
20/40(50%)
Yards / Pass
4.7
4.3
EPA / Pass
-0.05
-0.40
Rushing Yards
76
81
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
19
21
Passing 1st downs
14
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
5
3rd Down %
31%
23%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
33%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-5.08
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-7
-40
Sack EPA
-1.48
-10.56
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
89
39
Penalty EPA
-5.95
-4.99

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-139
Home nfelo
1,557
Away nfelo
1,721
Home Field
+25.6
Base HFA
+50.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+14.4
Away Bye Adj
-39.1
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-0.4
Home QB Adjustment
-1.7
Away QB Adjustment
-1.3
Market Regression
-18.6
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.3
Value
Ptile
02/03
-2.7
29
09/08
7.2
91
09/15
3.5
75
09/22
3.7
77
09/29
-6.4
14
10/06
5.7
85
10/10
3.6
75
10/21
0.6
56
10/27
-1.1
46
11/03
0.1
52
C. Wentz headshot

C. Wentz

Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-1.7
Value
Ptile
12/09
2.6
68
09/08
7.5
92
09/15
-4.8
21
09/22
1.0
60
09/26
2.7
70
10/06
-2.2
36
10/13
4.3
80
10/20
-4.6
22
10/27
0.8
58
11/03
-0.2
51

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Eagles Defense
Patriots logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
7
15
Yards / Game
14
10
Passing Yards / Game
20
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
3

EPA

EPA / Play
16
14
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
15
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
16
Interceptions / Game
10
24
Fumbles / Game
15
9
Turnover EPA / Game
28
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
18
5
4th Down Efficiency
26
27
RZ Efficiency
26
14
Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense
Eagles logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
15
1
Yards / Game
13
1
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8

EPA

EPA / Play
12
1
EPA / Pass
17
1
EPA / Rush
16
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
29
Interceptions / Game
5
1
Fumbles / Game
28
18
Turnover EPA / Game
19
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
8
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
02/03
10
W
W
U
09/08
30
W
W
U
09/15
43
W
W
U
09/22
16
W
L
O
09/29
6
W
L
U
10/06
26
W
W
U
10/10
21
W
W
O
10/21
33
W
W
U
10/27
14
W
W
U
11/03
-17
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/13
-6
L
W
U
09/08
5
W
L
O
09/15
-4
L
L
U
09/22
-3
L
L
O
09/26
7
W
W
O
10/06
25
W
W
U
10/13
-18
L
L
O
10/20
-27
L
L
U
10/27
18
W
W
O
11/03
8
W
W
U