NEPatriots
7-3
38
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
63°F
12 mph
20
PHIEagles
4-6
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
63°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
17
7
7
38
Eagles
10
3
0
7
20
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
457
466
Total Plays
71
67
Yards / Play
6.4
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.39
+0.09
Passing Yards
353
393
Comp/Att
24/34(71%)
26/48(54%)
Yards / Pass
10.4
8.2
EPA / Pass
+0.84
+0.19
Rushing Yards
104
73
Rush Attempts
36
17
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
23
Passing 1st downs
19
17
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
55%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
13
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.09
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-7
Sack EPA
-1.22
-2.10
Penalties
3
10
Penalty Yards
20
60
Penalty EPA
-1.14
-4.52
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-116
Home nfelo
1,590
Away nfelo
1,702
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-87.9
Home QB Adjustment
-76.5
Away QB Adjustment
+11.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+11.4
V. Young
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-76.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
9
Yards / Game
2
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
15
Rushing Yards / Game
19
16
EPA
EPA / Play
1
12
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
4
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
21
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
30
9
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
12
4th Down Efficiency
2
14
RZ Efficiency
2
27
Eagles Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
5
31
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
19
EPA
EPA / Play
8
27
EPA / Pass
15
27
EPA / Rush
3
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
26
Interceptions / Game
31
4
Fumbles / Game
21
25
Turnover EPA / Game
3
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
28
4th Down Efficiency
10
17
RZ Efficiency
16
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U