NEPatriots
6-4
25
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
00
ATLFalcons
4-5
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
10
0
6
19
Falcons
0
0
0
0
0
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
308
165
Total Plays
59
52
Yards / Play
5.2
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.05
-0.68
Passing Yards
174
125
Comp/Att
22/26(85%)
20/32(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
3.9
EPA / Pass
-0.10
-0.76
Rushing Yards
134
40
Rush Attempts
30
16
Yards / Rush
4.5
2.5
EPA / Rush
-0.13
-0.47
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
11
Passing 1st downs
7
7
Rushing 1st downs
9
3
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
33%
18%
3rd Down Conversions
4
2
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
33%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
1
4
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-6.39
-20.71
Sacks
3
4
Sack Yards
-33
-33
Sack EPA
-5.57
-6.88
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
59
72
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-7.70
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model70.8%
Spread Pick
Falcons+7.0
Expected Value
+3.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-121
Home nfelo
1,406
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+39.8
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-7.9
Home QB Adjustment
-7.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
-19.0
Final Difference
-153.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-7.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
29
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
12
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
27
EPA
EPA / Play
5
29
EPA / Pass
10
27
EPA / Rush
9
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
12
Interceptions / Game
17
20
Fumbles / Game
17
11
Turnover EPA / Game
6
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
30
4th Down Efficiency
1
11
RZ Efficiency
7
25
Falcons Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
3
Yards / Game
29
7
Passing Yards / Game
23
2
Rushing Yards / Game
31
24
EPA
EPA / Play
26
5
EPA / Pass
23
5
EPA / Rush
32
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
30
Interceptions / Game
21
2
Fumbles / Game
28
16
Turnover EPA / Game
7
28
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
9
4th Down Efficiency
28
16
RZ Efficiency
24
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U