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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ giants week 10, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
8-0
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
8 mph
26
NYGGiants
5-4
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
7
10
27
Giants
7
10
6
3
26

Spread

NYG logo
+7

Total

OVER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
406
422
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
6.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
329
342
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.13
Rushing Yards
77
80
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.15
-5.08
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-5
-19
Sack EPA
-7.24
-8.08
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
93
49
Penalty EPA
-10.38
-6.06

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-148
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,683
Home Field
+62.3
Base HFA
+62.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
Value
Ptile
01/18
3.7
75
02/01
8.6
93
09/10
7.3
92
09/20
10.6
97
09/27
7.8
93
10/11
2.0
65
10/18
2.9
72
10/25
7.6
93
10/29
8.6
95
11/08
3.0
73
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Value
Ptile
12/28
3.1
72
09/13
-2.9
30
09/20
4.9
82
09/24
5.5
85
10/04
0.9
56
10/11
13.0
100
10/19
-5.3
13
10/25
-6.2
10
11/01
10.7
98
11/08
-1.8
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Patriots logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24

EPA

EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
6
27

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Giants logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10

EPA

EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
21
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
29
14

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/18
38
W
W
P
02/01
4
W
W
O
09/10
7
W
L
U
09/20
8
W
W
O
09/27
34
W
W
O
10/11
24
W
W
U
10/18
7
W
L
O
10/25
7
W
P
O
10/29
29
W
W
U
11/08
17
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/28
-8
L
L
O
09/13
-1
L
W
O
09/20
-4
L
L
U
09/24
11
W
W
O
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/11
3
W
L
O
10/19
-20
L
L
U
10/25
7
W
W
O
11/01
-3
L
P
O
11/08
14
W
W
O