NEPatriots
8-0
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
8 mph
26
NYGGiants
5-4
TBD
MetLife Stadium
60°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
7
10
27
Giants
7
10
6
3
26
Spread
+7
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
406
422
Total Plays
68
70
Yards / Play
6.0
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.10
+0.05
Passing Yards
329
342
Comp/Att
26/42(62%)
24/44(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.8
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.13
+0.13
Rushing Yards
77
80
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
15
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
7
7
3rd Down Attempts
14
15
Red Zone %
50%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-10.15
-5.08
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-5
-19
Sack EPA
-7.24
-8.08
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
93
49
Penalty EPA
-10.38
-6.06
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-154
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,687
Home Field
+61.8
Base HFA
+61.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-11.5
Home QB Adjustment
+14.7
Away QB Adjustment
+26.2
Market Regression
+15.4
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+26.2
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
30
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
24
EPA
EPA / Play
1
31
EPA / Pass
4
25
EPA / Rush
6
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
2
9
Turnover EPA / Game
31
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
22
RZ Efficiency
4
12
Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
8
Yards / Game
6
8
Passing Yards / Game
29
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
10
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
21
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
17
24
Fumbles / Game
9
11
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
16
4th Down Efficiency
8
12
RZ Efficiency
29
14
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
10-0
SU
7-2-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Giants
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U