NEPatriots
2-8
7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
6 mph
10
NYGGiants
3-8
TBD
MetLife Stadium
43°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
0
7
0
7
Giants
0
7
0
3
10
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
36.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
283
220
Total Plays
68
50
Yards / Play
4.2
4.4
EPA / Play
-0.23
-0.26
Passing Yards
136
162
Comp/Att
21/35(60%)
17/25(68%)
Yards / Pass
3.9
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.07
Rushing Yards
147
58
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
4.7
3.1
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.53
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
10
Passing 1st downs
8
7
Rushing 1st downs
10
3
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
29%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-15.86
-5.03
Sacks
2
6
Sack Yards
-7
-29
Sack EPA
-1.86
-7.73
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
13
37
Penalty EPA
-1.10
-0.77
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model66.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-85
Home nfelo
1,408
Away nfelo
1,449
Home Field
+9.9
Base HFA
+44.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-34.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-53.4
Home QB Adjustment
-67.3
Away QB Adjustment
-13.9
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
-119.9
Model Spread
+4.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-13.9
T. DeVito
Proj. Value
-2.9
Team Elo Adj
-67.3
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
26
Yards / Game
30
27
Passing Yards / Game
31
5
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29
EPA
EPA / Play
32
17
EPA / Pass
31
12
EPA / Rush
22
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
1
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
16
1
Turnover EPA / Game
4
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
10
4th Down Efficiency
32
20
RZ Efficiency
11
24
Giants Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
14
Yards / Game
29
6
Passing Yards / Game
29
8
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
6
EPA / Pass
29
20
EPA / Rush
29
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
9
Interceptions / Game
15
23
Fumbles / Game
6
26
Turnover EPA / Game
21
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
7
4th Down Efficiency
20
20
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
2-8
ATS
3-7
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
3-7
O/U