NEPatriots
1-5
16
TBD
Wembley Stadium
63°F
12 mph
32
JAXJaguars
1-5
TBD
Wembley Stadium
63°F
12 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
0
6
16
Jaguars
0
16
3
7
26
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
366
Total Plays
55
60
Yards / Play
5.4
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.28
Passing Yards
257
--
Comp/Att
26/38(68%)
15/21(71%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
--
EPA / Pass
+0.18
+0.53
Rushing Yards
38
171
Rush Attempts
15
39
Yards / Rush
2.5
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.19
+0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
2
13
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-19
--
Sack EPA
-2.28
--
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-6.29
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
JAXJaguarsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+137
Home nfelo
1,489
Away nfelo
1,363
Home Field
+15.7
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-4.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.2
Market Regression
+40.1
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Value
Ptile
W. Lawrence
Proj. Value
-0.1
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
27
Yards / Game
31
31
Passing Yards / Game
22
26
Rushing Yards / Game
14
24
EPA
EPA / Play
28
31
EPA / Pass
27
32
EPA / Rush
25
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
25
Interceptions / Game
11
30
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
9
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
26
4th Down Efficiency
14
17
RZ Efficiency
30
20
Jaguars Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
21
Yards / Game
25
21
Passing Yards / Game
26
1
Rushing Yards / Game
25
22
EPA
EPA / Play
18
26
EPA / Pass
20
30
EPA / Rush
16
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
6
Interceptions / Game
22
27
Fumbles / Game
17
30
Turnover EPA / Game
23
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
27
4th Down Efficiency
20
11
RZ Efficiency
13
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Jaguars
2-8
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U