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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 7, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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NE logo
NEPatriots
5-1
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
11 mph
30
NYJJets
3-3
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
11 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
8
7
0
6
0
21
Jets
7
3
11
0
3
24

Spread

NYJ logo
+3.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
295
383
Total Plays
70
89
Yards / Play
4.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
205
206
Comp/Att
22/46(48%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.12
Rushing Yards
90
177
Rush Attempts
20
52
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
8%
52%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
21
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.65
-11.16
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-23
-27
Sack EPA
-4.91
-4.97
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
100
45
Penalty EPA
-10.51
-5.40

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-173
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,646
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-22.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-134.7
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.9
Value
Ptile
12/23
-3.8
26
12/30
4.2
76
01/13
8.4
93
01/20
-0.1
49
09/08
-1.9
40
09/12
-1.8
40
09/22
-0.9
45
09/29
4.7
82
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-3.6
27
E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Value
Ptile
09/08
-2.0
39
09/12
-12.1
2
09/22
4.7
83
09/29
-3.8
26
10/07
2.0
64
10/13
-7.2
10

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2

EPA

EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
13
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28

EPA

EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
18
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
26
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/23
7
W
L
U
12/30
28
W
W
U
01/13
13
W
W
O
01/20
-15
L
L
U
09/08
2
W
L
U
09/12
3
W
L
U
09/22
20
W
W
U
09/29
7
W
W
O
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
3
W
W
O
NYJ logo

Jets

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
7
W
W
U
12/17
-4
L
L
U
12/23
-10
L
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
U
09/08
1
W
W
U
09/12
-3
L
W
U
09/22
7
W
W
O
09/29
-25
L
L
O
10/07
2
W
W
O
10/13
-13
L
L
U