NEPatriots
5-1
27
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
11 mph
30
NYJJets
3-3
TBD
MetLife Stadium
63°F
11 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
8
7
0
6
0
21
Jets
7
3
11
0
3
24
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
295
383
Total Plays
70
89
Yards / Play
4.2
4.3
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.06
Passing Yards
205
206
Comp/Att
22/46(48%)
17/33(52%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.12
Rushing Yards
90
177
Rush Attempts
20
52
Yards / Rush
4.5
3.4
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
27
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
8%
52%
3rd Down Conversions
1
11
3rd Down Attempts
12
21
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.65
-11.16
Sacks
4
4
Sack Yards
-23
-27
Sack EPA
-4.91
-4.97
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
100
45
Penalty EPA
-10.51
-5.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model68.7%
Spread Pick
Patriots-3.5
Expected Value
+3.7%
Cover Probability
54.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-177
Home nfelo
1,414
Away nfelo
1,649
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-22.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-136.4
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-22.9
E. Smith
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
19
Yards / Game
6
11
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
8
2
EPA
EPA / Play
3
16
EPA / Pass
8
25
EPA / Rush
13
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
6
Interceptions / Game
5
22
Fumbles / Game
16
32
Turnover EPA / Game
24
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
13
4th Down Efficiency
18
10
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
10
Yards / Game
25
28
Passing Yards / Game
32
22
Rushing Yards / Game
6
28
EPA
EPA / Play
29
15
EPA / Pass
30
14
EPA / Rush
18
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
21
Interceptions / Game
28
10
Fumbles / Game
5
22
Turnover EPA / Game
6
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
27
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U