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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 8, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
3-4
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0
17
NYJJets
5-2
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
3
13
3
22
Jets
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

NE logo
-3

Total

UNDER
40

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
288
387
Total Plays
75
58
Yards / Play
3.8
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.26
Passing Yards
161
336
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
20/41(49%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.06
Rushing Yards
127
51
Rush Attempts
34
15
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
32%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.19
-12.69
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-33
-19
Sack EPA
-9.85
-3.46
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
54
41
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-4.88

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-52
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,520
Home Field
+21.9
Base HFA
+39.8
Divisional Adj
-17.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-13.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Value
Ptile
12/06
-5.0
20
12/18
-0.1
53
12/26
-6.5
12
01/02
4.7
83
01/09
-0.2
52
01/15
0.3
55
09/11
-1.3
44
09/18
0.2
54
09/25
-2.4
33
10/24
-6.4
12
Z. Wilson headshot

Z. Wilson

Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Value
Ptile
12/05
-1.2
44
12/12
-5.4
17
12/19
-6.2
13
12/26
4.0
80
01/02
-1.1
45
01/09
-10.8
2
10/02
-3.2
27
10/09
-1.3
43
10/16
-6.0
13
10/23
-3.8
24

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17

EPA

EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
24
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
3

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
32
3
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
22
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
31
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/02
40
W
W
O
01/09
-9
L
L
O
01/15
-30
L
L
O
09/11
-13
L
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/25
-11
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
W
O
10/09
29
W
W
U
10/16
23
W
W
O
10/24
-19
L
L
O
NYJ logo

Jets

6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/26
5
W
W
O
01/02
-4
L
W
O
01/09
-17
L
L
U
09/11
-15
L
L
U
09/18
1
W
W
O
09/25
-15
L
L
U
10/02
4
W
W
O
10/09
23
W
W
O
10/16
17
W
W
U
10/23
7
W
W
U