NEPatriots
3-4
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
017
NYJJets
5-2
TBD
MetLife Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
3
13
3
22
Jets
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
387
Total Plays
75
58
Yards / Play
3.8
6.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
-0.26
Passing Yards
161
336
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
20/41(49%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.06
Rushing Yards
127
51
Rush Attempts
34
15
Yards / Rush
3.7
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
1
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
32%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
19
14
Red Zone %
33%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.19
-12.69
Sacks
6
2
Sack Yards
-33
-19
Sack EPA
-9.85
-3.46
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
54
41
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-4.88
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,452
Away nfelo
1,518
Home Field
+21.6
Base HFA
+39.3
Divisional Adj
-17.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-5.0
Home QB Adjustment
-13.7
Away QB Adjustment
-8.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.8
Z. Wilson
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-13.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
2
Yards / Game
26
4
Passing Yards / Game
19
14
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
26
4
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
24
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
17
19
Fumbles / Game
29
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
10
4th Down Efficiency
28
8
RZ Efficiency
32
3
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
11
Yards / Game
25
9
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
25
7
EPA
EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
26
3
EPA / Rush
22
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
14
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
11
20
Turnover EPA / Game
11
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
20
4th Down Efficiency
26
2
RZ Efficiency
31
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Jets
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U