NEPatriots
7-3
49
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
2 mph
19
NYJJets
4-6
TBD
MetLife Stadium
46°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
23
0
14
37
Jets
0
3
7
7
17
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
405
Total Plays
66
67
Yards / Play
7.2
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.30
-0.24
Passing Yards
--
286
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
26/36(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.89
+0.08
Rushing Yards
152
119
Rush Attempts
39
29
Yards / Rush
3.9
4.1
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.49
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
25
Passing 1st downs
11
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
4
3rd Down %
73%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
11
3
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
5
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
4
Turnover EPA
-4.94
-26.75
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-3.06
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
37
35
Penalty EPA
-8.34
-5.44
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model73.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-217
Home nfelo
1,455
Away nfelo
1,674
Home Field
+34.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-33.1
Home QB Adjustment
-16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+16.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-174.6
Model Spread
+7.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.4
M. Sanchez
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
20
Yards / Game
1
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
1
Rushing Yards / Game
7
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
3
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
6
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
26
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
31
RZ Efficiency
1
26
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
10
Yards / Game
30
26
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
8
EPA
EPA / Play
30
17
EPA / Pass
30
19
EPA / Rush
15
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
28
6
Fumbles / Game
28
2
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
20
4th Down Efficiency
17
13
RZ Efficiency
25
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Jets
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U