NEPatriots
8-2
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
10 mph
17
NYJJets
3-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
3
9
22
Jets
3
7
0
7
17
Spread
+9.5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
333
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
5.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
269
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.02
Rushing Yards
91
64
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.47
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-4.16
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
66
Penalty EPA
--
-8.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-248
Home nfelo
1,464
Away nfelo
1,682
Home Field
+47.8
Base HFA
+57.1
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
+16.4
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-78.0
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+63.5
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+63.5
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
4
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
13
EPA
EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
16
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
14
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3
EPA
EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
16
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
32
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Jets
3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U