nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ jets week 12, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NE logo
NEPatriots
8-2
22
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
10 mph
17
NYJJets
3-7
NYJ logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
47°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
3
9
22
Jets
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

NYJ logo
+9.5

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Total Yards
377
333
Total Plays
72
56
Yards / Play
5.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.08
Passing Yards
--
269
Comp/Att
30/51(59%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
8.4
EPA / Pass
+0.11
-0.02
Rushing Yards
91
64
Rush Attempts
21
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
2.8
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Jets logo
1st Downs
26
16
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
29%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
40%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
1
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Jets logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-7.47
Sacks
--
1
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
--
-4.16
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
66
Penalty EPA
--
-8.57

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market79.1%
Model79.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-245
Home nfelo
1,463
Away nfelo
1,678
Home Field
+48.4
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
+16.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-78.0
Home QB Adjustment
-14.5
Away QB Adjustment
+63.5
Market Regression
-17.4
Final Difference
-231.2
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+63.5
Value
Ptile
12/27
-0.1
49
01/03
-6.1
11
01/16
9.9
97
01/24
-6.4
9
10/09
10.4
97
10/16
9.1
95
10/23
4.3
81
10/30
6.8
89
11/13
0.4
52
11/20
5.9
86
R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-14.5
Value
Ptile
12/27
7.7
93
01/03
-7.6
5
09/11
-0.8
42
09/15
7.2
90
09/25
-13.2
0
10/02
-7.1
8
10/09
0.4
52
10/17
-4.1
19
10/30
-3.7
22
11/06
-5.2
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Jets Defense
Patriots logo
Jets logo

Total

Points / Game
3
28
Yards / Game
4
11
Passing Yards / Game
8
12
Rushing Yards / Game
12
13

EPA

EPA / Play
2
23
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
16
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
16
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
14
27
Turnover EPA / Game
31
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
6
1
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Jets Offense vs Patriots Defense
Jets logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
30
1
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
15
6
Rushing Yards / Game
11
3

EPA

EPA / Play
30
5
EPA / Pass
31
8
EPA / Rush
9
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
32
12
Fumbles / Game
16
10
Turnover EPA / Game
3
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
32
12

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
2
W
W
U
09/18
7
W
W
O
09/22
27
W
W
U
10/02
-16
L
L
U
10/09
20
W
W
U
10/16
18
W
W
O
10/23
11
W
W
U
10/30
16
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/20
13
W
W
U
NYJ logo

Jets

3-7
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-1
L
L
O
09/15
6
W
W
O
09/25
-21
L
L
U
10/02
-10
L
L
O
10/09
-18
L
L
U
10/17
-25
L
L
U
10/23
8
W
W
U
10/30
3
W
W
O
11/06
-4
L
L
O
11/13
-3
L
L
U