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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ lions week 3, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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NE logo
NEPatriots
1-1
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
26
DETLions
0-2
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
0
10
Lions
3
10
7
6
26

Spread

DET logo
+7

Total

UNDER
55.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
209
414
Total Plays
47
70
Yards / Play
4.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.06
Passing Yards
120
255
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.16
Rushing Yards
89
159
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
12
25
Passing 1st downs
4
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.83
-3.76
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-7
Sack EPA
-3.08
-1.65
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
38
70
Penalty EPA
-4.64
-0.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model65.1%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,604
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-108.3
Model Spread
+4.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
Value
Ptile
12/03
-3.0
31
12/11
-5.6
17
12/17
0.1
52
12/24
1.6
65
12/31
-2.8
34
01/13
9.1
96
01/21
3.3
77
02/04
11.3
99
09/09
2.4
66
09/16
3.4
72
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Value
Ptile
11/12
-0.5
48
11/19
3.1
75
11/23
-1.6
41
12/03
2.7
72
12/10
6.2
88
12/16
1.6
64
12/24
-4.0
25
12/31
5.1
85
09/10
-4.8
19
09/16
6.8
89

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Lions Defense
Patriots logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11

EPA

EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
6
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Lions Offense vs Patriots Defense
Lions logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
25
6
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7

EPA

EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
25
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
4
RZ Efficiency
25
24

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/03
20
W
W
U
12/11
-7
L
L
U
12/17
3
W
W
U
12/24
21
W
W
O
12/31
20
W
W
U
01/13
21
W
W
O
01/21
4
W
L
U
02/04
-8
L
L
O
09/09
7
W
W
U
09/16
-11
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/12
14
W
W
O
11/19
3
W
P
O
11/23
-7
L
L
O
12/03
-24
L
L
O
12/10
3
W
W
U
12/16
10
W
W
U
12/24
-9
L
L
U
12/31
24
W
W
O
09/10
-31
L
L
O
09/16
-3
L
W
O