NEPatriots
1-1
10
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
026
DETLions
0-2
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
7
0
10
Lions
3
10
7
6
26
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
209
414
Total Plays
47
70
Yards / Play
4.4
5.9
EPA / Play
-0.32
+0.06
Passing Yards
120
255
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
4.6
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.42
+0.16
Rushing Yards
89
159
Rush Attempts
19
33
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.09
-0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
25
Passing 1st downs
4
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
22%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
14
Red Zone %
50%
25%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-2.83
-3.76
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-13
-7
Sack EPA
-3.08
-1.65
Penalties
5
6
Penalty Yards
38
70
Penalty EPA
-4.64
-0.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model65.0%
Spread Pick
Lions+7.0
Expected Value
+12.0%
Cover Probability
55.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-55
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,605
Home Field
+56.6
Base HFA
+56.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-3.9
Home QB Adjustment
+5.3
Away QB Adjustment
+9.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-107.8
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.3
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+5.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
4
9
Passing Yards / Game
25
25
Rushing Yards / Game
5
11
EPA
EPA / Play
4
15
EPA / Pass
7
24
EPA / Rush
6
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
14
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
8
28
Turnover EPA / Game
27
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
12
4th Down Efficiency
19
11
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Lions Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
6
Yards / Game
24
15
Passing Yards / Game
20
9
Rushing Yards / Game
23
7
EPA
EPA / Play
23
7
EPA / Pass
22
5
EPA / Rush
25
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
32
Interceptions / Game
14
5
Fumbles / Game
18
14
Turnover EPA / Game
17
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
15
4th Down Efficiency
9
4
RZ Efficiency
25
24
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Lions
5-5
SU
5-4-1
ATS
7-3
O/U