NEPatriots
8-2
45
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
024
DETLions
2-8
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
3
7
14
21
45
Lions
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
447
406
Total Plays
53
75
Yards / Play
8.4
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.49
-0.01
Passing Yards
338
277
Comp/Att
21/27(78%)
27/46(59%)
Yards / Pass
12.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
+0.78
-0.18
Rushing Yards
109
129
Rush Attempts
25
27
Yards / Rush
4.4
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.17
+0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
13
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
50%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
4
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
14
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-13.03
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-3
-8
Sack EPA
-1.95
-2.06
Penalties
5
8
Penalty Yards
50
66
Penalty EPA
-5.83
-5.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-6.5
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model71.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-170
Home nfelo
1,382
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+0.5
Home QB Adjustment
+11.0
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
+54.9
Final Difference
-158.9
Model Spread
+6.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
S. Hill
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
+11.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
19
Yards / Game
7
21
Passing Yards / Game
23
28
Rushing Yards / Game
9
24
EPA
EPA / Play
1
11
EPA / Pass
2
6
EPA / Rush
2
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
26
Interceptions / Game
1
19
Fumbles / Game
2
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
19
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Lions Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
8
Yards / Game
15
25
Passing Yards / Game
6
25
Rushing Yards / Game
23
13
EPA
EPA / Play
20
20
EPA / Pass
19
15
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
24
Interceptions / Game
16
2
Fumbles / Game
9
13
Turnover EPA / Game
18
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
32
4th Down Efficiency
7
25
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Lions
2-8
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U