NEPatriots
1-2
24
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
027
GBPackers
2-1
TBD
Lambeau Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Patriots
3
1
7
7
0
18
Packers
0
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
+9.5
Total
OVER
40.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
271
443
Total Plays
58
71
Yards / Play
4.7
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.02
Passing Yards
104
244
Comp/Att
15/21(71%)
21/35(60%)
Yards / Pass
5.0
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.33
-0.13
Rushing Yards
167
199
Rush Attempts
33
35
Yards / Rush
5.1
5.7
EPA / Rush
+0.25
+0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
24
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
27%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
50%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-4.70
-12.67
Sacks
4
1
Sack Yards
-32
-7
Sack EPA
-8.07
-2.20
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
75
40
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-2.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-8.5
Win Probability
Market78.5%
Model77.3%
Spread Pick
Patriots+9.5
Expected Value
+1.9%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,510
Home Field
+58.7
Base HFA
+38.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.4
Time Adj
+6.9
Net QB Adjustment
+18.2
Home QB Adjustment
-1.2
Away QB Adjustment
-19.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
212.7
Model Spread
-8.5
Quarterbacks
B. Hoyer
Proj. Value
-3.7
Team Elo Adj
-19.4
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-1.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
16
Yards / Game
26
16
Passing Yards / Game
19
13
Rushing Yards / Game
24
26
EPA
EPA / Play
26
20
EPA / Pass
22
14
EPA / Rush
24
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
26
Interceptions / Game
17
5
Fumbles / Game
29
14
Turnover EPA / Game
22
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
7
4th Down Efficiency
28
23
RZ Efficiency
32
11
Packers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
11
Yards / Game
17
9
Passing Yards / Game
13
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
2
EPA / Pass
18
3
EPA / Rush
10
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
14
Interceptions / Game
10
3
Fumbles / Game
9
20
Turnover EPA / Game
17
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
2
RZ Efficiency
22
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Packers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U