NEPatriots
9-2
21
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
14 mph
26
GBPackers
8-3
TBD
Lambeau Field
28°F
14 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
14
0
7
21
Packers
13
10
0
3
26
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
57
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
478
Total Plays
54
70
Yards / Play
5.9
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.18
+0.21
Passing Yards
236
348
Comp/Att
22/35(63%)
24/38(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
9.2
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.44
Rushing Yards
84
130
Rush Attempts
18
29
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
24
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
40%
59%
3rd Down Conversions
4
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
17
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-9
-20
Sack EPA
-1.33
-3.72
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
25
22
Penalty EPA
-4.13
-3.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
+3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+120
Home nfelo
1,657
Away nfelo
1,638
Home Field
+95.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+5.7
Home QB Adjustment
+34.2
Away QB Adjustment
+28.5
Market Regression
+65.1
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+28.5
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+34.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
28
Rushing Yards / Game
19
26
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
5
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
25
Interceptions / Game
6
4
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
23
RZ Efficiency
5
23
Packers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
8
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
21
Rushing Yards / Game
10
13
EPA
EPA / Play
3
9
EPA / Pass
2
11
EPA / Rush
12
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
2
10
Fumbles / Game
10
23
Turnover EPA / Game
29
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
13
4th Down Efficiency
22
12
RZ Efficiency
11
16
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
7-3
ATS
7-3
O/U
Packers
8-2
SU
6-3-1
ATS
8-2
O/U