NEPatriots
7-6
24
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
030
OAKRaiders
5-8
TBD
Allegiant Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
3
4
11
18
Raiders
3
14
0
7
24
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
308
Total Plays
64
64
Yards / Play
5.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.18
-0.16
Passing Yards
--
211
Comp/Att
13/32(41%)
20/38(53%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.6
EPA / Pass
-0.29
-0.10
Rushing Yards
206
97
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
6.4
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.01
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
18
Passing 1st downs
6
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
15%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
0%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
--
2
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.20
-7.70
Sacks
--
3
Sack Yards
--
-20
Sack EPA
--
-5.27
Penalties
6
13
Penalty Yards
30
90
Penalty EPA
-3.46
-11.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model52.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+36
Home nfelo
1,522
Away nfelo
1,553
Home Field
+62.4
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.3
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
+4.1
Home QB Adjustment
-4.0
Away QB Adjustment
-8.1
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
15.3
Model Spread
-1.0
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-8.1
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
26
Yards / Game
26
27
Passing Yards / Game
19
5
Rushing Yards / Game
24
19
EPA
EPA / Play
26
25
EPA / Pass
22
30
EPA / Rush
24
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
25
Interceptions / Game
17
31
Fumbles / Game
29
25
Turnover EPA / Game
22
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
25
4th Down Efficiency
28
20
RZ Efficiency
32
31
Raiders Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
11
Yards / Game
12
9
Passing Yards / Game
15
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
7
EPA
EPA / Play
13
2
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
13
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
14
Interceptions / Game
28
3
Fumbles / Game
1
20
Turnover EPA / Game
8
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
20
4th Down Efficiency
9
2
RZ Efficiency
26
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U