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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ rams week 8, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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NE logo
NEPatriots
4-3
45
TBD
Wembley Stadium
49°F
9 mph
7
LARRams
3-4
LAR logo
TBD
Wembley Stadium
49°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
21
10
7
45
Rams
7
0
0
0
7

Spread

NE logo
-7

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
473
326
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
7.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.56
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
219
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.22
Rushing Yards
152
107
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
29
17
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
58%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
86%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
6
--
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.10
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-4.66
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
42
102
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-13.75

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model79.0%
Spread Pick
NE logo
Patriots-7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-275
Home nfelo
1,399
Away nfelo
1,657
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
+7.1
Final Difference
-229.9
Model Spread
+9.5

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Value
Ptile
01/14
14.3
99
01/22
-0.3
50
02/05
1.9
65
09/09
4.6
80
09/16
-1.1
41
09/23
5.8
85
09/30
9.4
95
10/07
0.9
55
10/14
5.2
83
10/21
4.8
81
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Value
Ptile
11/20
-8.9
3
11/27
-1.3
43
12/12
-8.1
5
09/09
-2.8
32
09/16
6.2
88
09/23
-11.5
1
09/30
-3.9
25
10/04
-4.4
23
10/14
5.8
86
10/21
-1.9
37

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Rams Defense
Patriots logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15

EPA

EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
3
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
8
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Rams Offense vs Patriots Defense
Rams logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8

EPA

EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
22
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
9
2
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
19
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/14
35
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
L
U
02/05
-4
L
L
U
09/09
21
W
W
U
09/16
-2
L
L
U
09/23
-1
L
W
O
09/30
24
W
W
O
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-1
L
L
O
10/21
3
W
L
O
LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-7
L
P
U
12/24
-27
L
L
U
01/01
-7
L
W
O
09/09
-4
L
W
O
09/16
3
W
W
O
09/23
-17
L
L
U
09/30
6
W
W
U
10/04
14
W
W
U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/21
-10
L
L
O