NEPatriots
4-3
45
TBD
Wembley Stadium
49°F
9 mph
7
LARRams
3-4
TBD
Wembley Stadium
49°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
21
10
7
45
Rams
7
0
0
0
7
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
473
326
Total Plays
66
57
Yards / Play
7.2
5.7
EPA / Play
+0.56
-0.04
Passing Yards
--
219
Comp/Att
24/38(63%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
--
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.22
Rushing Yards
152
107
Rush Attempts
28
23
Yards / Rush
5.4
4.7
EPA / Rush
+0.28
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
17
Passing 1st downs
16
9
Rushing 1st downs
9
7
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
58%
30%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
86%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
6
--
Red Zone Attempts
7
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-10.10
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-25
Sack EPA
--
-4.66
Penalties
8
12
Penalty Yards
42
102
Penalty EPA
-4.56
-13.75
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-8.0
Current
-7.0
Model
-9.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model79.2%
Spread Pick
Patriots-7.0
Expected Value
+16.3%
Cover Probability
57.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-279
Home nfelo
1,398
Away nfelo
1,658
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-7.0
Home QB Adjustment
+3.7
Away QB Adjustment
+10.7
Market Regression
+10.0
Final Difference
-232.4
Model Spread
+9.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
S. Bradford
Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+3.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
14
Yards / Game
1
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
18
Rushing Yards / Game
7
15
EPA
EPA / Play
1
13
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
3
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
20
Interceptions / Game
5
11
Fumbles / Game
8
32
Turnover EPA / Game
26
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
13
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Rams Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
16
31
Rushing Yards / Game
20
8
EPA
EPA / Play
25
17
EPA / Pass
18
19
EPA / Rush
22
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
30
Interceptions / Game
12
6
Fumbles / Game
9
2
Turnover EPA / Game
16
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
29
20
4th Down Efficiency
15
13
RZ Efficiency
19
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U