NEPatriots
8-0
20
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
1 mph
37
BALRavens
5-2
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
48°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
13
7
0
20
Ravens
10
7
1
13
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
372
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
5.3
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.04
+0.24
Passing Yards
268
162
Comp/Att
30/46(65%)
17/23(74%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
7.0
EPA / Pass
-0.18
+0.55
Rushing Yards
74
210
Rush Attempts
17
41
Yards / Rush
4.4
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
26
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
4
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
10
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
2
1
Turnover EPA
-9.22
-4.28
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-17
-1
Sack EPA
-3.30
-0.64
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
48
34
Penalty EPA
-9.98
-3.01
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-63
Home nfelo
1,580
Away nfelo
1,731
Home Field
+66.3
Base HFA
+51.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+14.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+21.3
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
+0.9
Market Regression
+40.8
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.9
L. Jackson
Proj. Value
+4.4
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
3
Yards / Game
14
3
Passing Yards / Game
20
14
Rushing Yards / Game
18
7
EPA
EPA / Play
16
7
EPA / Pass
18
3
EPA / Rush
15
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
26
Interceptions / Game
10
16
Fumbles / Game
15
6
Turnover EPA / Game
28
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
18
14
4th Down Efficiency
26
3
RZ Efficiency
26
7
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
2
1
Passing Yards / Game
23
4
Rushing Yards / Game
1
8
EPA
EPA / Play
1
1
EPA / Pass
1
1
EPA / Rush
1
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
29
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
9
18
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
1
4th Down Efficiency
5
6
RZ Efficiency
5
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
10-0
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Ravens
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U