NEPatriots
10-4
41
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
8 mph
7
BALRavens
8-6
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
3
3
9
29
Ravens
0
0
0
7
7
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
45
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
358
Total Plays
62
74
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.40
Passing Yards
158
237
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.46
Rushing Yards
142
121
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-25.06
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-25
Sack EPA
-3.53
-6.57
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
58
83
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-9.58
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market53.6%
Model52.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+7
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,578
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-53.8
Final Difference
-18.5
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
J. Flacco
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10
EPA
EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
13
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28
EPA
EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
31
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
31
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Ravens
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U