nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ ravens week 16, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NE logo
NEPatriots
10-4
41
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
8 mph
7
BALRavens
8-6
BAL logo
TBD
M&T Bank Stadium
65°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
3
3
9
29
Ravens
0
0
0
7
7

Spread

NE logo
-1.5

Total

OVER
45

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
Total Yards
300
358
Total Plays
62
74
Yards / Play
4.8
4.8
EPA / Play
+0.16
-0.40
Passing Yards
158
237
Comp/Att
14/26(54%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
5.6
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.46
Rushing Yards
142
121
Rush Attempts
34
28
Yards / Rush
4.2
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.08
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
1st Downs
21
19
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
7
5
Penalty 1st downs
4
1
3rd Down %
31%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Ravens logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-25.06
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-25
Sack EPA
-3.53
-6.57
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
58
83
Penalty EPA
-5.06
-9.58

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market53.6%
Model52.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+9
Home nfelo
1,538
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+62.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.3
Home QB Adjustment
-16.7
Away QB Adjustment
+1.6
Market Regression
-53.8
Final Difference
-18.1
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
10/06
-8.3
7
10/13
-3.6
27
10/20
-8.1
7
10/27
-6.4
13
11/03
10.4
96
11/18
3.2
72
11/24
6.7
89
12/01
6.7
89
12/08
2.6
68
12/15
5.3
84
J. Flacco headshot

J. Flacco

Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
-16.7
Value
Ptile
10/06
-2.2
37
10/13
0.8
56
10/20
3.9
76
11/03
-2.1
38
11/10
-8.0
8
11/17
-6.7
12
11/24
-2.5
36
11/28
2.1
65
12/08
-3.0
31
12/16
-1.6
41

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Ravens Defense
Patriots logo
Ravens logo

Total

Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
6
12
Passing Yards / Game
10
4
Rushing Yards / Game
8
10

EPA

EPA / Play
3
10
EPA / Pass
8
13
EPA / Rush
13
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
4
Interceptions / Game
5
14
Fumbles / Game
16
29
Turnover EPA / Game
24
7

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
3
4th Down Efficiency
18
23
RZ Efficiency
8
8
Ravens Offense vs Patriots Defense
Ravens logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
25
10
Yards / Game
28
28
Passing Yards / Game
12
22
Rushing Yards / Game
30
28

EPA

EPA / Play
23
15
EPA / Pass
21
14
EPA / Rush
31
23

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
21
Interceptions / Game
31
10
Fumbles / Game
9
22
Turnover EPA / Game
18
21

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
20
27
4th Down Efficiency
23
2
RZ Efficiency
31
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
-7
L
L
U
10/13
3
W
W
O
10/20
-3
L
L
O
10/27
10
W
W
U
11/03
24
W
W
O
11/18
-4
L
L
U
11/24
3
W
W
O
12/01
3
W
L
O
12/08
1
W
L
O
12/15
-4
L
L
U
BAL logo

Ravens

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/06
3
W
W
O
10/13
-2
L
L
U
10/20
-3
L
L
U
11/03
-6
L
L
O
11/10
3
W
W
U
11/17
-3
L
W
O
11/24
16
W
W
U
11/28
2
W
L
O
12/08
3
W
L
O
12/16
2
W
W
U