NEPatriots
3-2
25
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
019
NOSaints
1-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
8
3
0
25
Saints
6
10
0
3
19
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
335
296
Total Plays
59
51
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.01
Passing Yards
260
223
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.06
Rushing Yards
75
73
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.67
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-4
Sack EPA
-1.09
-2.23
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
65
67
Penalty EPA
-7.69
-11.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-72
Home nfelo
1,362
Away nfelo
1,456
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Maye
Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
21
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
14
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
28
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
16
Interceptions / Game
9
23
Fumbles / Game
26
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
15
4th Down Efficiency
1
15
RZ Efficiency
17
21
Saints Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
30
5
Yards / Game
26
8
Passing Yards / Game
17
27
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
30
8
EPA / Pass
28
14
EPA / Rush
30
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
6
Interceptions / Game
23
15
Fumbles / Game
24
17
Turnover EPA / Game
5
21
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
11
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
32
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U