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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ saints week 6, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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NE logo
NEPatriots
3-2
25
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
19
NOSaints
1-4
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
14
8
3
0
25
Saints
6
10
0
3
19

Spread

NE logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
46

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
335
296
Total Plays
59
51
Yards / Play
5.7
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.01
Passing Yards
260
223
Comp/Att
18/26(69%)
20/26(77%)
Yards / Pass
10.0
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.67
-0.06
Rushing Yards
75
73
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
2.3
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.31
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
19
17
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
46%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
9
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.67
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-1
-4
Sack EPA
-1.09
-2.23
Penalties
11
8
Penalty Yards
65
67
Penalty EPA
-7.69
-11.95

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NE logo
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-67
Home nfelo
1,367
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+33.1
Base HFA
+40.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-10.8
Home QB Adjustment
+0.8
Away QB Adjustment
+11.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

D. Maye headshot

D. Maye

Proj. Value
+2.2
Team Elo Adj
+11.6
Value
Ptile
11/24
-3.8
23
12/01
1.4
59
12/15
1.1
56
12/22
3.2
71
12/28
-5.0
16
09/07
-2.5
34
09/14
4.6
81
09/21
1.9
64
09/28
4.9
83
10/05
-0.9
43
S. Rattler headshot

S. Rattler

Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
10/17
-3.8
23
10/27
-6.9
9
12/23
-7.0
8
12/29
-4.1
22
01/05
-1.0
42
09/07
-1.0
43
09/14
3.5
75
09/21
0.0
51
09/28
-0.8
45
10/05
2.6
69

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Saints Defense
Patriots logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
4
16
Yards / Game
4
7
Passing Yards / Game
1
6
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19

EPA

EPA / Play
2
9
EPA / Pass
1
11
EPA / Rush
23
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
21
3
Turnover EPA / Game
21
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
3
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
20
9
Saints Offense vs Patriots Defense
Saints logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
29
5
Yards / Game
23
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
22
Rushing Yards / Game
28
7

EPA

EPA / Play
29
10
EPA / Pass
27
12
EPA / Rush
31
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
7
Interceptions / Game
18
20
Fumbles / Game
26
14
Turnover EPA / Game
6
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
32
2
RZ Efficiency
31
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/01
-1
L
W
O
12/15
-13
L
L
O
12/22
-3
L
W
U
12/28
-33
L
L
O
01/05
7
W
W
O
09/07
-7
L
L
U
09/14
6
W
W
O
09/21
-7
L
L
U
09/28
29
W
W
O
10/05
3
W
W
U
NO logo

Saints

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/08
3
W
L
U
12/15
-1
L
W
U
12/23
-34
L
L
U
12/29
-15
L
L
U
01/05
-8
L
W
O
09/07
-7
L
L
U
09/14
-5
L
L
O
09/21
-31
L
L
O
09/28
-12
L
W
O
10/05
12
W
W
U