NEPatriots
3-2
23
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
9 mph
24
SEASeahawks
3-2
TBD
Lumen Field
63°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
10
3
3
23
Seahawks
10
0
0
14
24
Spread
+4
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
475
368
Total Plays
85
55
Yards / Play
5.6
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.04
Passing Yards
388
283
Comp/Att
36/58(62%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
10.5
EPA / Pass
+0.11
+0.32
Rushing Yards
87
85
Rush Attempts
26
26
Yards / Rush
3.3
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
26
17
Passing 1st downs
20
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
44%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
8
4
3rd Down Attempts
18
12
Red Zone %
17%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-8.81
-7.94
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-7
-10
Sack EPA
-0.42
-5.27
Penalties
6
4
Penalty Yards
80
35
Penalty EPA
-9.91
-4.40
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market65.2%
Model65.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-132
Home nfelo
1,492
Away nfelo
1,681
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-16.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.9
Away QB Adjustment
+10.3
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-109.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.3
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-5.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
1
Yards / Game
1
3
Passing Yards / Game
9
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
5
EPA / Pass
1
5
EPA / Rush
3
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
18
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
8
19
Turnover EPA / Game
26
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
5
2
RZ Efficiency
1
6
Seahawks Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
14
26
Passing Yards / Game
23
31
Rushing Yards / Game
4
8
EPA
EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
4
19
EPA / Rush
5
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
30
Interceptions / Game
5
6
Fumbles / Game
22
2
Turnover EPA / Game
31
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
20
4th Down Efficiency
12
13
RZ Efficiency
15
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U