NEPatriots
5-1
17
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
3 mph
25
PITSteelers
5-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
40°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
0
10
0
7
17
Steelers
7
10
3
3
23
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
52
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
213
427
Total Plays
50
78
Yards / Play
4.3
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.02
+0.11
Passing Yards
170
329
Comp/Att
24/35(69%)
36/50(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.03
+0.26
Rushing Yards
43
98
Rush Attempts
12
23
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
29
Passing 1st downs
11
23
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
5
1
3rd Down %
30%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
10
16
Red Zone %
100%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.82
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-28
-36
Sack EPA
-4.49
-5.10
Penalties
6
8
Penalty Yards
37
50
Penalty EPA
-5.31
-8.37
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-65
Home nfelo
1,609
Away nfelo
1,704
Home Field
+35.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-6.3
Home QB Adjustment
+9.9
Away QB Adjustment
+16.1
Market Regression
-22.1
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+16.1
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+9.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
1
Yards / Game
2
1
Passing Yards / Game
2
3
Rushing Yards / Game
19
8
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
3
7
EPA / Rush
4
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
8
Interceptions / Game
11
25
Fumbles / Game
11
30
Turnover EPA / Game
30
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
19
4th Down Efficiency
2
28
RZ Efficiency
2
15
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
11
Yards / Game
11
31
Passing Yards / Game
4
28
Rushing Yards / Game
13
19
EPA
EPA / Play
7
27
EPA / Pass
8
27
EPA / Rush
7
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
12
26
Interceptions / Game
18
4
Fumbles / Game
26
25
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
28
4th Down Efficiency
25
17
RZ Efficiency
15
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Steelers
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U