NEPatriots
10-3
27
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
4 mph
24
PITSteelers
11-2
TBD
Acrisure Stadium
42°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
3
6
11
27
Steelers
7
10
7
0
24
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
362
413
Total Plays
57
63
Yards / Play
6.4
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.28
+0.14
Passing Yards
285
270
Comp/Att
22/36(61%)
22/30(73%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
9.0
EPA / Pass
+0.21
+0.39
Rushing Yards
77
143
Rush Attempts
19
31
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.6
EPA / Rush
+0.27
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
21
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
33%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
3
10
3rd Down Attempts
9
16
Red Zone %
75%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.17
-3.22
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-15
-11
Sack EPA
-2.89
-2.87
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
63
Penalty EPA
--
-6.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model51.1%
Spread Pick
Steelers+2.5
Expected Value
+2.6%
Cover Probability
53.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+23
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,691
Home Field
+75.1
Base HFA
+55.7
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+27.9
Home QB Adjustment
+22.1
Away QB Adjustment
-5.8
Market Regression
-7.0
Final Difference
-7.9
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
-5.8
B. Roethlisberger
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+22.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Steelers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
11
Yards / Game
1
5
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
15
13
EPA
EPA / Play
1
17
EPA / Pass
1
12
EPA / Rush
8
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
28
Interceptions / Game
2
11
Fumbles / Game
6
22
Turnover EPA / Game
31
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
13
4th Down Efficiency
4
9
RZ Efficiency
3
31
Steelers Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
7
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
22
20
EPA
EPA / Play
5
26
EPA / Pass
6
24
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
24
22
Fumbles / Game
3
30
Turnover EPA / Game
18
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
18
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Steelers
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U