NEPatriots
-
34
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
4 mph
13
TENTitans
-
TBD
Nissan Stadium
74°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
7
8
7
6
28
Titans
3
0
7
3
13
Spread
-5
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
390
284
Total Plays
67
61
Yards / Play
5.8
4.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.14
Passing Yards
228
264
Comp/Att
23/31(74%)
29/43(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.1
EPA / Pass
+0.32
-0.06
Rushing Yards
162
20
Rush Attempts
35
16
Yards / Rush
4.6
1.3
EPA / Rush
+0.15
-0.45
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
12
13
Rushing 1st downs
13
1
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
14
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-8.26
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-8
-8
Sack EPA
-2.33
-5.71
Penalties
3
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NEPatriotsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market67.5%
Model67.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-118
Home nfelo
1,500
Away nfelo
1,674
Home Field
+73.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-17.6
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
+17.1
Market Regression
+28.8
Final Difference
-127.0
Model Spread
+5.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+17.1
J. Locker
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Titans Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
32
Yards / Game
1
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
23
EPA
EPA / Play
1
24
EPA / Pass
1
23
EPA / Rush
3
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
11
Interceptions / Game
5
5
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
26
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
22
4th Down Efficiency
5
9
RZ Efficiency
1
30
Titans Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
10
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
25
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
8
EPA
EPA / Play
28
17
EPA / Pass
28
19
EPA / Rush
23
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
23
30
Interceptions / Game
18
6
Fumbles / Game
23
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
20
4th Down Efficiency
27
13
RZ Efficiency
22
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
9-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Titans
6-4
SU
4-4-2
ATS
2-8
O/U