NEPatriots
6-4
26
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
033
MINVikings
8-2
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
6
10
0
26
Vikings
7
9
7
10
33
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
358
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
7.4
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.13
Passing Yards
364
301
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
31/38(82%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.32
Rushing Yards
45
57
Rush Attempts
13
27
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
30%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.88
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-9
Sack EPA
-3.25
-1.65
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,536
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
-21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
M. Jones
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
K. Cousins
Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
-21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Patriots Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
21
EPA
EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
24
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
29
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Vikings Offense vs Patriots Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7
EPA
EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
28
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
8
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Patriots
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Vikings
8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U