nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. patriots @ vikings week 12, 2022

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

NE logo
NEPatriots
6-4
26
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
33
MINVikings
8-2
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Patriots
10
6
10
0
26
Vikings
7
9
7
10
33

Spread

MIN logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Patriots logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
409
358
Total Plays
55
66
Yards / Play
7.4
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
+0.13
Passing Yards
364
301
Comp/Att
28/39(72%)
31/38(82%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.15
+0.32
Rushing Yards
45
57
Rush Attempts
13
27
Yards / Rush
3.5
2.1
EPA / Rush
-0.17
-0.30
Downs & Conversions
Patriots logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
17
23
Passing 1st downs
14
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
5
3rd Down %
30%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
0%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Patriots logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.88
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-18
-9
Sack EPA
-3.25
-1.65
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
--
--
Penalty EPA
--
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,535
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+47.4
Base HFA
+40.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+7.2
Net QB Adjustment
-3.7
Home QB Adjustment
-21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-17.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

M. Jones headshot

M. Jones

Proj. Value
+0.1
Team Elo Adj
-17.5
Value
Ptile
01/02
4.7
83
01/09
-0.2
52
01/15
0.3
55
09/11
-1.3
44
09/18
0.2
54
09/25
-2.4
33
10/24
-6.4
12
10/30
-6.1
13
11/06
-4.7
20
11/20
-2.7
30
K. Cousins headshot

K. Cousins

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-21.2
Value
Ptile
09/11
5.3
86
09/19
-6.2
13
09/25
0.6
56
10/02
-0.6
47
10/09
5.7
88
10/16
-2.2
35
10/30
3.0
76
11/06
-2.2
36
11/13
-1.6
42
11/20
-10.4
1

Team Matchup Ranks

Patriots Offense vs Vikings Defense
Patriots logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
16
30
Yards / Game
26
31
Passing Yards / Game
19
26
Rushing Yards / Game
24
21

EPA

EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
22
27
EPA / Rush
24
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
11
Interceptions / Game
17
12
Fumbles / Game
29
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
18

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
15
4th Down Efficiency
28
6
RZ Efficiency
32
22
Vikings Offense vs Patriots Defense
Vikings logo
Patriots logo

Total

Points / Game
8
11
Yards / Game
5
9
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7

EPA

EPA / Play
17
2
EPA / Pass
10
3
EPA / Rush
28
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
14
Interceptions / Game
21
3
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
10
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
20
4th Down Efficiency
22
2
RZ Efficiency
8
21

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

NE logo

Patriots

6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
-13
L
L
U
09/18
3
W
P
U
09/25
-11
L
L
O
10/02
-3
L
W
O
10/09
29
W
W
U
10/16
23
W
W
O
10/24
-19
L
L
O
10/30
5
W
W
U
11/06
23
W
W
U
11/20
7
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

8-2
SU
4-5-1
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/11
16
W
W
U
09/19
-17
L
L
U
09/25
4
W
L
P
10/02
3
W
L
O
10/09
7
W
L
O
10/16
8
W
W
U
10/30
8
W
W
O
11/06
3
W
P
U
11/13
3
W
W
O
11/20
-37
L
L
U