nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ bengals week 9, 2024

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2026 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-6
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
67°F
7 mph
41
CINBengals
3-5
CIN logo
TBD
Paycor Stadium
67°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
8
18
Bengals
7
10
14
10
41

Spread

CIN logo
-8

Total

OVER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Bengals logo
Total Yards
217
373
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
3.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.15
Passing Yards
157
243
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.18
Rushing Yards
60
130
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Bengals logo
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Bengals logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.01
-8.65
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-41
-8
Sack EPA
-12.73
-1.93
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
51
60
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-5.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
CIN logo
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0

Win Probability

Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+221
Home nfelo
1,561
Away nfelo
1,435
Home Field
+80.8
Base HFA
+42.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.9
Time Adj
+23.0
Net QB Adjustment
+14.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0

Quarterbacks

G. Minshew headshot

G. Minshew

Proj. Value
-2.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
Value
Ptile
12/16
1.8
61
12/24
-9.3
4
12/31
0.1
50
01/06
-4.0
24
09/08
-2.0
34
09/15
-0.2
48
09/22
-2.1
34
09/29
-4.8
17
10/06
-4.5
20
10/27
0.3
51
J. Burrow headshot

J. Burrow

Proj. Value
+1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Value
Ptile
11/12
-0.0
49
11/16
-2.0
34
09/08
-2.3
32
09/15
0.9
54
09/23
6.2
85
09/29
3.1
70
10/06
10.7
98
10/13
1.8
61
10/20
-1.6
38
10/27
0.8
54

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Raiders logo
Bengals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
27
24
Passing Yards / Game
9
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
19

EPA

EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
32
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Bengals logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12

EPA

EPA / Play
6
12
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
14
10

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
5
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-3
L
W
O
01/07
13
W
W
O
09/08
-12
L
L
U
09/15
3
W
W
O
09/22
-14
L
L
O
09/29
4
W
W
U
10/06
-16
L
L
O
10/13
-19
L
L
O
10/20
-5
L
W
U
10/27
-7
L
W
O
CIN logo

Bengals

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/31
-8
L
L
U
01/07
17
W
W
O
09/08
-6
L
L
U
09/15
-1
L
W
O
09/23
-5
L
L
O
09/29
10
W
W
O
10/06
-3
L
L
O
10/13
10
W
W
U
10/20
7
W
W
U
10/27
-20
L
L
O