OAKRaiders
2-6
24
TBD
Paycor Stadium
67°F
7 mph
41
CINBengals
3-5
TBD
Paycor Stadium
67°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
8
18
Bengals
7
10
14
10
41
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
217
373
Total Plays
59
71
Yards / Play
3.7
5.3
EPA / Play
-0.14
+0.15
Passing Yards
157
243
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
27/39(69%)
Yards / Pass
4.8
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.29
+0.18
Rushing Yards
60
130
Rush Attempts
21
31
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
10
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
38%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
5
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
1
4
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-13.01
-8.65
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-41
-8
Sack EPA
-12.73
-1.93
Penalties
6
7
Penalty Yards
51
60
Penalty EPA
-4.97
-5.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+222
Home nfelo
1,562
Away nfelo
1,436
Home Field
+81.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
+23.1
Net QB Adjustment
+14.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.7
Market Regression
+4.6
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
G. Minshew
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-4.7
J. Burrow
Proj. Value
+4.0
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
25
Yards / Game
27
25
Passing Yards / Game
9
13
Rushing Yards / Game
32
19
EPA
EPA / Play
31
28
EPA / Pass
24
17
EPA / Rush
32
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
10
Interceptions / Game
26
9
Fumbles / Game
29
8
Turnover EPA / Game
3
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
23
4th Down Efficiency
16
19
RZ Efficiency
26
30
Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
25
Yards / Game
9
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
27
Rushing Yards / Game
30
12
EPA
EPA / Play
6
12
EPA / Pass
5
26
EPA / Rush
14
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
9
Interceptions / Game
9
22
Fumbles / Game
27
31
Turnover EPA / Game
18
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
17
4th Down Efficiency
21
31
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bengals
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U