OAKRaiders
3-10
16
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
2 mph
30
CINBengals
5-8
TBD
Paycor Stadium
43°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
6
3
16
Bengals
7
13
0
10
30
Spread
-3
Total
PUSH
46
P
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
297
294
Total Plays
59
75
Yards / Play
5.0
3.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
+0.04
Passing Yards
229
123
Comp/Att
21/38(55%)
14/33(42%)
Yards / Pass
6.0
3.7
EPA / Pass
-0.12
-0.17
Rushing Yards
68
171
Rush Attempts
16
41
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.2
EPA / Rush
-0.41
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
18
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
3
3rd Down %
21%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
14
19
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-9.05
-2.69
Sacks
5
1
Sack Yards
-34
-7
Sack EPA
-9.71
-1.91
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
90
85
Penalty EPA
-10.06
-3.30
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CINBengalsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,348
Home Field
+108.3
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+30.8
Net QB Adjustment
-95.7
Home QB Adjustment
-92.8
Away QB Adjustment
+2.9
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+2.9
J. Driskel
Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-92.8
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Bengals Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
23
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
29
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
29
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
19
Interceptions / Game
8
20
Fumbles / Game
31
19
Turnover EPA / Game
5
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
32
4th Down Efficiency
28
26
RZ Efficiency
22
25
Bengals Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
17
32
Yards / Game
26
26
Passing Yards / Game
22
6
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
18
32
EPA / Pass
18
32
EPA / Rush
19
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
17
14
Fumbles / Game
1
31
Turnover EPA / Game
24
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
30
4th Down Efficiency
18
28
RZ Efficiency
3
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bengals
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U