OAKRaiders
1-0
10
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
038
BUFBills
0-1
TBD
New Era Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
3
0
0
10
Bills
7
14
7
10
38
Spread
-7
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
240
450
Total Plays
39
74
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
-0.16
+0.32
Passing Yards
--
267
Comp/Att
16/24(67%)
31/37(84%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.2
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.36
Rushing Yards
55
183
Rush Attempts
15
35
Yards / Rush
3.7
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.55
+0.19
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
29
Passing 1st downs
10
17
Rushing 1st downs
2
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
7
13
Red Zone %
50%
71%
Red Zone Conversions
1
5
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-15.10
--
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-7
Sack EPA
--
-3.12
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
30
Penalty EPA
--
-2.57
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,615
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+43.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+23.1
Net QB Adjustment
-9.5
Home QB Adjustment
-8.9
Away QB Adjustment
+0.7
Market Regression
-41.8
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+5.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
3
Yards / Game
27
8
Passing Yards / Game
32
13
Rushing Yards / Game
30
15
EPA
EPA / Play
24
11
EPA / Pass
22
6
EPA / Rush
26
23
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
32
Interceptions / Game
28
5
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
13
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
18
4th Down Efficiency
6
15
RZ Efficiency
24
18
Bills Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
5
14
Passing Yards / Game
19
27
Rushing Yards / Game
5
20
EPA
EPA / Play
3
5
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
1
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
28
20
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
15
21
Turnover EPA / Game
22
24
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
25
4th Down Efficiency
7
23
RZ Efficiency
4
27
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Bills
8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U