OAKRaiders
1-1
21
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
16 mph
37
DENBroncos
2-0
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
7
7
21
Broncos
10
17
3
7
37
Spread
-14.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
536
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
6.7
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.30
Passing Yards
293
372
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
32/37(86%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.49
Rushing Yards
49
164
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
31
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.73
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-2
Sack EPA
-2.94
-5.77
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
77
40
Penalty EPA
-2.38
-5.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5
Win Probability
Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+308
Home nfelo
1,653
Away nfelo
1,399
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+31.1
Home QB Adjustment
+29.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+9.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5
Quarterbacks
T. Pryor
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5
EPA
EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
16
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11
EPA
EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
19
15
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
6
RZ Efficiency
2
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Broncos
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U