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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ broncos week 3, 2013

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
1-1
21
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
16 mph
37
DENBroncos
2-0
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
64°F
16 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
7
7
21
Broncos
10
17
3
7
37

Spread

DEN logo
-14.5

Total

OVER
48.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
342
536
Total Plays
51
73
Yards / Play
6.7
7.3
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.30
Passing Yards
293
372
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
32/37(86%)
Yards / Pass
9.5
10.1
EPA / Pass
+0.39
+0.49
Rushing Yards
49
164
Rush Attempts
17
35
Yards / Rush
2.9
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.26
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
13
31
Passing 1st downs
11
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
42%
56%
3rd Down Conversions
5
5
3rd Down Attempts
12
9
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-9.73
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-23
-2
Sack EPA
-2.94
-5.77
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
77
40
Penalty EPA
-2.38
-5.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DEN logo
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-14.0
Current
-14.5
Model
-14.5

Win Probability

Market87.9%
Model87.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+303
Home nfelo
1,651
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+23.1
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+31.1
Home QB Adjustment
+29.1
Away QB Adjustment
-2.0
Market Regression
+9.6
Final Difference
344.5
Model Spread
-14.5

Quarterbacks

T. Pryor headshot

T. Pryor

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-2.0
Value
Ptile
12/30
2.6
66
09/08
4.6
82
09/15
-2.9
32
P. Manning headshot

P. Manning

Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Value
Ptile
11/18
0.5
53
11/25
0.7
54
12/02
3.5
72
12/06
-0.7
45
12/16
-0.1
49
12/23
8.3
93
12/30
9.6
96
01/12
1.4
59
09/05
14.7
100
09/15
6.3
88

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Raiders logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
24
22
Yards / Game
23
18
Passing Yards / Game
30
23
Rushing Yards / Game
11
5

EPA

EPA / Play
24
23
EPA / Pass
24
23
EPA / Rush
16
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
32
Interceptions / Game
24
18
Fumbles / Game
27
8
Turnover EPA / Game
9
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
4
RZ Efficiency
5
25
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Broncos logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
1
29
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
24
30
Rushing Yards / Game
16
11

EPA

EPA / Play
1
26
EPA / Pass
1
32
EPA / Rush
19
15

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
7
31
Fumbles / Game
25
11
Turnover EPA / Game
15
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
28
4th Down Efficiency
4
6
RZ Efficiency
2
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/11
-35
L
L
O
11/18
-21
L
L
U
11/25
-24
L
L
U
12/02
-3
L
L
U
12/06
-13
L
L
U
12/16
15
W
W
U
12/23
-11
L
L
U
12/30
-3
L
W
O
09/08
-4
L
W
U
09/15
10
W
W
U
DEN logo

Broncos

9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/18
7
W
L
O
11/25
8
W
L
U
12/02
8
W
L
O
12/06
13
W
W
U
12/16
17
W
W
O
12/23
22
W
W
O
12/30
35
W
W
P
01/12
-3
L
L
O
09/05
22
W
W
O
09/15
18
W
W
O