OAKRaiders
1-2
6
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
6 mph
37
DENBroncos
1-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
72°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
3
0
0
6
Broncos
10
0
21
6
37
Spread
-6.5
Total
UNDER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
503
Total Plays
53
77
Yards / Play
4.5
6.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
+0.30
Passing Yards
181
--
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
30/39(77%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
--
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.47
Rushing Yards
56
165
Rush Attempts
16
38
Yards / Rush
3.5
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.32
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
12
26
Passing 1st downs
9
14
Rushing 1st downs
2
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
8%
63%
3rd Down Conversions
1
10
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
+0.22
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-3.64
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
41
30
Penalty EPA
-3.57
-2.45
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model67.4%
Spread Pick
Raiders+6.5
Expected Value
+2.1%
Cover Probability
53.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+94
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,457
Home Field
+45.5
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+4.4
Home QB Adjustment
+20.1
Away QB Adjustment
+15.7
Market Regression
+2.8
Final Difference
126.1
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+15.7
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+20.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
4
Yards / Game
18
2
Passing Yards / Game
14
19
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4
EPA
EPA / Play
23
3
EPA / Pass
19
6
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
31
Interceptions / Game
18
14
Fumbles / Game
16
21
Turnover EPA / Game
15
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
1
4th Down Efficiency
31
5
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
4
17
Passing Yards / Game
29
6
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
32
EPA / Pass
2
30
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
25
Interceptions / Game
8
23
Fumbles / Game
27
22
Turnover EPA / Game
12
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
18
4th Down Efficiency
3
24
RZ Efficiency
4
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
4-5-1
ATS
8-2
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U