OAKRaiders
3-2
34
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
8 mph
24
DENBroncos
3-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
76°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
10
7
14
3
34
Broncos
7
0
3
14
24
Spread
+5
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
426
421
Total Plays
52
77
Yards / Play
8.2
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.03
Passing Yards
340
309
Comp/Att
18/27(67%)
35/49(71%)
Yards / Pass
12.6
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.61
+0.08
Rushing Yards
86
112
Rush Attempts
23
23
Yards / Rush
3.7
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
-0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
25
Passing 1st downs
11
18
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
36%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
3
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-12.16
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-1
-25
Sack EPA
-1.77
-4.78
Penalties
6
6
Penalty Yards
54
53
Penalty EPA
-4.79
-4.32
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-5.0
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market67.1%
Model65.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+75
Home nfelo
1,510
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+37.2
Base HFA
+41.5
Divisional Adj
-18.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+14.5
Home QB Adjustment
+9.8
Away QB Adjustment
-4.6
Market Regression
+25.0
Final Difference
113.8
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-4.6
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+9.8
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
8
9
Passing Yards / Game
2
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
14
EPA
EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
15
16
EPA / Rush
28
20
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
12
Interceptions / Game
17
17
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
28
4th Down Efficiency
7
4
RZ Efficiency
29
2
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
26
Yards / Game
19
14
Passing Yards / Game
11
11
Rushing Yards / Game
13
15
EPA
EPA / Play
15
28
EPA / Pass
13
28
EPA / Rush
23
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
11
Interceptions / Game
5
32
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
25
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
16
4th Down Efficiency
14
32
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U