OAKRaiders
5-7
15
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
2 mph
12
DENBroncos
10-2
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
45°F
2 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
0
7
6
13
Broncos
6
6
0
0
12
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
126
310
Total Plays
56
77
Yards / Play
2.3
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.29
-0.27
Passing Yards
99
276
Comp/Att
12/30(40%)
35/51(69%)
Yards / Pass
3.3
5.4
EPA / Pass
-0.34
-0.20
Rushing Yards
27
34
Rush Attempts
23
21
Yards / Rush
1.2
1.6
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.35
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
8
20
Passing 1st downs
6
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
20%
22%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
18
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
+6.66
-4.04
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-36
-32
Sack EPA
-8.51
-6.21
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
70
27
Penalty EPA
-7.56
-3.84
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+163
Home nfelo
1,651
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+43.9
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
-27.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-78.6
Home QB Adjustment
-56.1
Away QB Adjustment
+22.5
Market Regression
-43.9
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
B. Osweiler
Proj. Value
-2.8
Team Elo Adj
-56.1
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
4
Yards / Game
24
2
Passing Yards / Game
26
12
Rushing Yards / Game
28
1
EPA
EPA / Play
19
1
EPA / Pass
21
1
EPA / Rush
20
2
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
12
Interceptions / Game
17
13
Fumbles / Game
27
7
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
17
2
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
22
Yards / Game
21
22
Passing Yards / Game
21
19
Rushing Yards / Game
17
13
EPA
EPA / Play
26
19
EPA / Pass
27
14
EPA / Rush
27
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
21
Interceptions / Game
30
15
Fumbles / Game
19
15
Turnover EPA / Game
10
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
11
4th Down Efficiency
22
19
RZ Efficiency
28
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-3-2
O/U
Broncos
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
3-6-1
O/U