OAKRaiders
7-8
32
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
10 mph
31
DENBroncos
5-10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
53°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
14
0
15
32
Broncos
10
0
6
15
31
Spread
+3
Total
OVER
50.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
467
448
Total Plays
65
76
Yards / Play
7.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
-0.00
Passing Yards
361
326
Comp/Att
24/39(62%)
25/42(60%)
Yards / Pass
9.3
7.8
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.12
Rushing Yards
106
122
Rush Attempts
23
32
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.8
EPA / Rush
+0.04
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
24
Passing 1st downs
13
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
38%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
13
16
Red Zone %
50%
40%
Red Zone Conversions
1
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
-18.20
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-12
-15
Sack EPA
-3.85
-3.88
Penalties
14
4
Penalty Yards
111
28
Penalty EPA
-11.55
-2.59
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model59.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-84
Home nfelo
1,378
Away nfelo
1,476
Home Field
+3.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
+10.2
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
-28.2
Final Difference
-68.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+0.7
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+10.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
25
Yards / Game
8
20
Passing Yards / Game
18
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
20
EPA / Pass
14
14
EPA / Rush
12
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
20
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
32
28
Turnover EPA / Game
3
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
12
4th Down Efficiency
3
12
RZ Efficiency
23
1
Broncos Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
30
Yards / Game
24
26
Passing Yards / Game
29
5
Rushing Yards / Game
13
23
EPA
EPA / Play
31
29
EPA / Pass
30
28
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
24
Interceptions / Game
32
23
Fumbles / Game
23
31
Turnover EPA / Game
1
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
32
31
RZ Efficiency
27
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U