OAKRaiders
4-3
31
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
026
LACChargers
2-5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
7
14
3
31
Chargers
0
17
3
6
26
Spread
-1
Total
OVER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
320
440
Total Plays
50
76
Yards / Play
6.4
5.8
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.05
Passing Yards
160
312
Comp/Att
13/23(57%)
28/42(67%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
7.4
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.24
Rushing Yards
160
128
Rush Attempts
26
32
Yards / Rush
6.2
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.30
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
6
18
Rushing 1st downs
10
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
50%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
10
15
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
2
0
Turnover EPA
+2.45
--
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-14
Sack EPA
-2.57
-3.39
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
--
45
Penalty EPA
--
-3.10
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
+1.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,485
Away nfelo
1,484
Home Field
+5.6
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.9
Home QB Adjustment
+26.3
Away QB Adjustment
+16.5
Market Regression
-31.5
Final Difference
-9.3
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.5
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+26.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
23
Yards / Game
8
10
Passing Yards / Game
18
10
Rushing Yards / Game
14
17
EPA
EPA / Play
11
13
EPA / Pass
14
19
EPA / Rush
12
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
18
Interceptions / Game
7
16
Fumbles / Game
32
24
Turnover EPA / Game
3
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
22
4th Down Efficiency
3
26
RZ Efficiency
23
8
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
30
Yards / Game
10
26
Passing Yards / Game
2
5
Rushing Yards / Game
18
23
EPA
EPA / Play
23
29
EPA / Pass
10
28
EPA / Rush
31
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
24
Interceptions / Game
7
23
Fumbles / Game
8
31
Turnover EPA / Game
30
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
30
4th Down Efficiency
25
31
RZ Efficiency
21
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-4-1
O/U
Chargers
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
6-4
O/U