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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chargers week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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  • QB Rankings
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    QB Elo model adjusted for era

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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
2-9
14
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0
31
LACChargers
7-4
LAC logo
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
7
0
7
14
Chargers
7
0
14
10
31

Spread

LAC logo
-9.5

Total

OVER
40.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
156
341
Total Plays
46
67
Yards / Play
3.4
5.1
EPA / Play
-0.21
+0.15
Passing Yards
125
149
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
16/21(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
7.1
EPA / Pass
-0.09
+0.39
Rushing Yards
31
192
Rush Attempts
18
43
Yards / Rush
1.7
4.5
EPA / Rush
-0.71
-0.03
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
12
22
Passing 1st downs
9
11
Rushing 1st downs
1
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
25%
71%
3rd Down Conversions
2
12
3rd Down Attempts
8
17
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
5
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-3.37
-4.48
Sacks
5
3
Sack Yards
-40
-11
Sack EPA
-10.83
-3.90
Penalties
4
4
Penalty Yards
--
27
Penalty EPA
--
-4.96

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-9.5
Model
-9.5

Win Probability

Market78.5%
Model78.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+219
Home nfelo
1,516
Away nfelo
1,366
Home Field
+52.0
Base HFA
+43.9
Divisional Adj
-19.8
Home Bye Adj
+12.6
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.3
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+18.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-24.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
225.0
Model Spread
-9.5

Quarterbacks

E. Smith headshot

E. Smith

Proj. Value
-2.7
Team Elo Adj
-24.2
Value
Ptile
09/15
-10.7
2
09/21
1.3
60
09/28
-3.7
25
10/05
-7.1
8
10/12
-4.2
22
10/19
-5.7
14
11/02
4.7
82
11/06
-8.7
4
11/17
-4.5
20
11/23
-4.5
20
J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
09/15
2.9
72
09/21
-3.7
25
09/28
-5.0
17
10/05
-0.5
46
10/12
4.6
81
10/19
5.3
85
10/23
5.5
86
11/02
0.2
53
11/09
-3.8
24
11/16
-8.8
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
7
Yards / Game
32
4
Passing Yards / Game
22
7
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
31
8
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
32
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
4
Interceptions / Game
30
3
Fumbles / Game
2
29
Turnover EPA / Game
4
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
6
4th Down Efficiency
29
12
RZ Efficiency
25
4
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
17
25
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
10
17
Rushing Yards / Game
12
18

EPA

EPA / Play
21
22
EPA / Pass
20
26
EPA / Rush
18
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
21
1
Interceptions / Game
23
24
Fumbles / Game
6
19
Turnover EPA / Game
11
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
3
32
4th Down Efficiency
18
21
RZ Efficiency
27
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

1-9
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
-11
L
L
U
09/21
-17
L
L
O
09/28
-1
L
L
O
10/05
-34
L
L
U
10/12
10
W
W
U
10/19
-31
L
L
U
11/02
-1
L
W
O
11/06
-3
L
W
U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/23
-14
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
11
W
W
U
09/21
3
W
W
U
09/28
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-17
L
L
U
10/12
2
W
L
O
10/19
-14
L
L
O
10/23
27
W
W
O
11/02
7
W
L
O
11/09
15
W
W
U
11/16
-29
L
L
U