OAKRaiders
10-3
19
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
62°F
5 mph
16
LACChargers
5-8
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
62°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
7
3
6
19
Chargers
7
3
6
0
16
Spread
-2.5
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
345
263
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.16
Passing Yards
200
190
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.08
Rushing Yards
145
73
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
14%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.73
-8.71
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-2.57
-4.34
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-5.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-26
Home nfelo
1,504
Away nfelo
1,531
Home Field
+31.5
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.6
Home QB Adjustment
-18.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12
EPA
EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
17
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
20
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23
EPA
EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
27
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
23
26
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chargers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U