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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. raiders @ chargers week 15, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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OAK logo
OAKRaiders
10-3
19
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
62°F
5 mph
16
LACChargers
5-8
LAC logo
TBD
Qualcomm Stadium
62°F
5 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
7
3
6
19
Chargers
7
3
6
0
16

Spread

OAK logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
49.5

Game Statistics

General
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Total Yards
345
263
Total Plays
61
55
Yards / Play
5.7
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.03
-0.16
Passing Yards
200
190
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
17/30(57%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
6.3
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.08
Rushing Yards
145
73
Rush Attempts
29
22
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.39
Downs & Conversions
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
1st Downs
18
14
Passing 1st downs
9
12
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
31%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
4
8
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
14%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
7
2
Negative Plays
Raiders logo
Chargers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-8.73
-8.71
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-13
-16
Sack EPA
-2.57
-4.34
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
44
Penalty EPA
--
-5.26

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
OAK logo
OAKRaidersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-27
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,530
Home Field
+31.9
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
-26.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-30.6
Home QB Adjustment
-18.5
Away QB Adjustment
+12.1
Market Regression
+22.1
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Carr headshot

D. Carr

Proj. Value
+0.8
Team Elo Adj
+12.1
Value
Ptile
10/02
7.0
90
10/09
1.2
58
10/16
-0.8
43
10/23
0.2
51
10/30
14.4
100
11/06
-1.3
38
11/21
5.4
84
11/27
2.1
65
12/04
2.8
71
12/08
-8.2
4
P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-18.5
Value
Ptile
10/02
-0.3
46
10/09
4.3
81
10/13
-0.4
45
10/23
-1.7
36
10/30
-8.5
4
11/06
4.0
78
11/13
-5.3
14
11/27
3.9
77
12/04
-2.7
28
12/11
-9.2
4

Team Matchup Ranks

Raiders Offense vs Chargers Defense
Raiders logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
26
23
Rushing Yards / Game
6
12

EPA

EPA / Play
15
13
EPA / Pass
17
13
EPA / Rush
17
9

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
14
Interceptions / Game
9
1
Fumbles / Game
15
12
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
17
4th Down Efficiency
20
25
RZ Efficiency
13
14
Chargers Offense vs Raiders Defense
Chargers logo
Raiders logo

Total

Points / Game
8
20
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
26
23

EPA

EPA / Play
17
14
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
27
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
31
Interceptions / Game
31
11
Fumbles / Game
31
7
Turnover EPA / Game
2
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
13
4th Down Efficiency
14
3
RZ Efficiency
23
26

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

OAK logo

Raiders

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
1
W
W
O
10/09
3
W
L
O
10/16
-16
L
L
U
10/23
17
W
W
O
10/30
6
W
W
O
11/06
10
W
W
O
11/21
7
W
W
O
11/27
3
W
L
O
12/04
14
W
W
O
12/08
-8
L
L
U
LAC logo

Chargers

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/02
-1
L
L
O
10/09
-3
L
W
O
10/13
8
W
W
U
10/23
3
W
W
O
10/30
-8
L
L
O
11/06
8
W
W
O
11/13
-7
L
L
O
11/27
8
W
W
U
12/04
-7
L
L
P
12/11
-12
L
L
U