OAKRaiders
0-1
13
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
5 mph
10
KCChiefs
0-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
72°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
3
7
13
Chiefs
3
0
0
7
10
Spread
+3
Total
UNDER
40
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
166
409
Total Plays
51
79
Yards / Play
3.3
5.2
EPA / Play
-0.04
-0.09
Passing Yards
99
236
Comp/Att
7/24(29%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
6.1
EPA / Pass
-0.20
-0.15
Rushing Yards
67
173
Rush Attempts
25
38
Yards / Rush
2.7
4.6
EPA / Rush
-0.20
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
11
25
Passing 1st downs
6
13
Rushing 1st downs
3
10
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
23%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
100%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
1
--
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.64
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-5
Sack EPA
-1.43
-2.53
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
45
70
Penalty EPA
-4.83
-4.47
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+41
Home nfelo
1,364
Away nfelo
1,430
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
+51.1
Home QB Adjustment
+42.4
Away QB Adjustment
-8.6
Market Regression
-23.4
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Russell
Proj. Value
-5.2
Team Elo Adj
-8.6
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
+42.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
31
29
Yards / Game
31
30
Passing Yards / Game
26
8
Rushing Yards / Game
21
30
EPA
EPA / Play
29
25
EPA / Pass
30
18
EPA / Rush
22
27
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
5
Interceptions / Game
22
16
Fumbles / Game
32
7
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
18
24
RZ Efficiency
29
22
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
25
25
Passing Yards / Game
20
15
Rushing Yards / Game
12
29
EPA
EPA / Play
26
26
EPA / Pass
26
27
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
3
Interceptions / Game
18
31
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
28
RZ Efficiency
23
10
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
1-0-9
O/U
Chiefs
1-9
SU
5-5
ATS
1-0-9
O/U