OAKRaiders
2-2
40
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
80°F
16 mph
32
KCChiefs
4-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
80°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
3
21
0
16
40
Chiefs
7
17
0
8
32
Spread
+10.5
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
490
415
Total Plays
67
67
Yards / Play
7.3
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.32
+0.13
Passing Yards
346
335
Comp/Att
22/31(71%)
22/44(50%)
Yards / Pass
11.2
7.6
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.26
Rushing Yards
144
80
Rush Attempts
35
20
Yards / Rush
4.1
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
21
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
50%
43%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
14
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-5.60
-4.91
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-1
-7
Sack EPA
-0.75
-3.34
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
59
94
Penalty EPA
-8.68
-8.78
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-12.0
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+259
Home nfelo
1,706
Away nfelo
1,458
Home Field
+7.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
+3.5
Home QB Adjustment
+26.0
Away QB Adjustment
+22.5
Market Regression
-33.0
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+22.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+26.0
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
10
Yards / Game
8
15
Passing Yards / Game
18
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
19
EPA
EPA / Play
11
23
EPA / Pass
14
12
EPA / Rush
12
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
27
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
32
20
Turnover EPA / Game
3
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
3
29
RZ Efficiency
23
32
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
30
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
8
5
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
2
29
EPA / Pass
2
28
EPA / Rush
9
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
24
Interceptions / Game
5
23
Fumbles / Game
11
31
Turnover EPA / Game
29
3
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
30
4th Down Efficiency
11
31
RZ Efficiency
19
19
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Chiefs
10-0
SU
8-1-1
ATS
4-6
O/U