OAKRaiders
2-9
17
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
37°F
5 mph
19
KCChiefs
10-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
37°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
0
3
7
7
17
Chiefs
3
7
6
3
19
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
42
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
434
329
Total Plays
63
67
Yards / Play
6.9
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.08
-0.04
Passing Yards
318
266
Comp/Att
23/35(66%)
26/46(57%)
Yards / Pass
9.1
5.8
EPA / Pass
+0.26
+0.03
Rushing Yards
116
63
Rush Attempts
25
16
Yards / Rush
4.6
3.9
EPA / Rush
-0.18
-0.25
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
18
Passing 1st downs
13
14
Rushing 1st downs
7
2
Penalty 1st downs
--
2
3rd Down %
25%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
0%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-2.12
--
Sacks
3
5
Sack Yards
-22
-40
Sack EPA
-5.48
-6.72
Penalties
9
7
Penalty Yards
101
40
Penalty EPA
-9.93
-4.26
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-13.0
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+279
Home nfelo
1,638
Away nfelo
1,402
Home Field
+36.8
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+14.5
Net QB Adjustment
+6.0
Home QB Adjustment
-6.9
Away QB Adjustment
-12.9
Market Regression
+18.3
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
A. O'Connell
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-12.9
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
-6.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
6
Yards / Game
27
9
Passing Yards / Game
9
17
Rushing Yards / Game
32
10
EPA
EPA / Play
31
16
EPA / Pass
24
25
EPA / Rush
32
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
15
Interceptions / Game
26
17
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
3
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
24
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
26
11
Chiefs Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
25
Yards / Game
19
12
Passing Yards / Game
19
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
12
EPA
EPA / Play
10
12
EPA / Pass
10
26
EPA / Rush
12
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
9
Interceptions / Game
14
22
Fumbles / Game
5
31
Turnover EPA / Game
22
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
17
4th Down Efficiency
6
31
RZ Efficiency
21
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Chiefs
9-1
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U