OAKRaiders
1-2
31
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
024
INDColts
2-1
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
14
7
3
1
25
Colts
7
3
0
14
24
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
377
346
Total Plays
64
69
Yards / Play
5.9
5.0
EPA / Play
+0.08
-0.09
Passing Yards
189
--
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
24/46(52%)
Yards / Pass
6.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.24
-0.03
Rushing Yards
188
81
Rush Attempts
32
23
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.02
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
11
14
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-5.05
-10.81
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-0.82
--
Penalties
11
5
Penalty Yards
80
--
Penalty EPA
-11.00
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-5.5
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model75.3%
Spread Pick
Colts-5.5
Expected Value
+21.2%
Cover Probability
63.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+245
Home nfelo
1,540
Away nfelo
1,392
Home Field
+105.6
Base HFA
+56.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.6
Time Adj
+30.1
Net QB Adjustment
-8.8
Home QB Adjustment
-8.5
Away QB Adjustment
+0.3
Market Regression
-16.0
Final Difference
193.9
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-8.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
18
Yards / Game
12
16
Passing Yards / Game
24
18
Rushing Yards / Game
13
5
EPA
EPA / Play
14
17
EPA / Pass
6
21
EPA / Rush
21
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
24
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
18
20
Turnover EPA / Game
15
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
27
4th Down Efficiency
7
10
RZ Efficiency
22
9
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
24
Yards / Game
25
19
Passing Yards / Game
25
16
Rushing Yards / Game
5
6
EPA
EPA / Play
18
31
EPA / Pass
23
31
EPA / Rush
2
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
27
Interceptions / Game
12
29
Fumbles / Game
22
30
Turnover EPA / Game
12
5
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
3
31
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
4-5-1
O/U
Colts
7-3
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U