OAKRaiders
8-7
23
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
020
INDColts
9-6
TBD
Lucas Oil Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Raiders
7
6
0
10
23
Colts
0
10
7
3
20
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
326
262
Total Plays
61
54
Yards / Play
5.3
4.9
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
241
140
Comp/Att
24/32(75%)
16/27(59%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.20
Rushing Yards
85
122
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
3.1
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
16
Passing 1st downs
13
6
Rushing 1st downs
5
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
43%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
6
3
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.55
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-8
Sack EPA
-2.71
-2.78
Penalties
6
3
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-6.03
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
INDColtsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model72.8%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+200
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,487
Home Field
+68.3
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.7
Time Adj
+19.4
Net QB Adjustment
+7.8
Home QB Adjustment
-0.5
Away QB Adjustment
-8.4
Market Regression
-36.9
Final Difference
171.0
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-8.4
C. Wentz
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-0.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Raiders Offense vs Colts Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
8
17
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
19
12
EPA / Pass
15
21
EPA / Rush
28
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
13
22
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
32
1
Turnover EPA / Game
11
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
18
4th Down Efficiency
7
18
RZ Efficiency
29
26
Colts Offense vs Raiders Defense
Total
Points / Game
8
26
Yards / Game
16
14
Passing Yards / Game
18
11
Rushing Yards / Game
2
15
EPA
EPA / Play
8
28
EPA / Pass
18
28
EPA / Rush
2
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
11
Interceptions / Game
4
32
Fumbles / Game
20
26
Turnover EPA / Game
28
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
12
16
4th Down Efficiency
6
32
RZ Efficiency
19
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Raiders
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Colts
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U